Donald Trump acknowledged this Wednesday that oil and gasoline prices will not decrease before the midterm elections in November, but assured that they will start to fall immediately after those elections are concluded.
According to a report from AP News, the president directly linked the rising oil prices to the war that the United States has been waging against Iran since early 2026.
The statement comes at a time of high energy tension: Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel this Wednesday, driven by renewed exchanges of attacks between Washington and Tehran, according to Reuters.
Trump stated that oil and gas prices "will not drop before the midterms and will start to fall immediately after" those elections, marking a politically risky admission: the president himself dismisses any relief for consumers in the short term.
The context is about sustained climbing. Brent started 2026 at around $70 per barrel, climbed to $112.57 on March 28 —its highest level since 2022— and surpassed $125 in May, during the most acute phase of the conflict.
After partial agreements for de-escalation in June, prices fell, but surged again in August and September due to new military offensives.
Gasoline in the United States averaged $4.15 per gallon last Labor Day, a record for that holiday, while diesel reached $5.85 per gallon, surpassing the previous record set in 2022.
Throughout the year, Trump has tested various strategies to curb prices. In July, he demanded that gas stations lower their prices "immediately", citing crude oil prices that were then around $68 per barrel, and set a target between $2.25 and $2.50 per gallon.
On August 27, he met with oil executives and refiners to explore measures to reduce fuel costs.
Within its own administration, divisions regarding the time frame persist. The Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, stated that gasoline could approach $3 per gallon in the summer if the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, were to be reopened.
The Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, was more pessimistic and warned that the price might not fall below that barrier until 2027.
In April, Trump had already hinted to Fox News that gas prices could be "the same" or "a little higher" for the midterms, although not as emphatically as his statement this Wednesday.
Analysts and media outlets such as Reuters and Politico have indicated that relief in prices may arrive too late for voters to notice before November, posing a significant electoral risk for Republicans.
The global rise in crude oil prices has also impacted Cuba, where the regime liberalized gasoline prices starting May 15 and prices in the informal market skyrocketed from 700-1,500 Cuban pesos per liter in January to 7,000-8,000 pesos in the following months, exacerbating an energy crisis that was already severe before the conflict.
Any sustained decline in the international price of crude oil following the November elections would have direct implications not only for American consumers but also for the island's energy supply.
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