Economist Elías Amor was unequivocal during his weekly segment on CiberCuba: "Cuba will never dollarize." And when host Tania Costa asked him if that could change in a potential political transition, his response was just as firm: "Neither will that."
The statement emerged while analyzing the two new resolutions from the regime regarding foreign exchange — the Resolution 102/2026 from the Central Bank and Resolution 103/2026 from the Ministry of Economy — published on September 10 in the Official Gazette. Amor clarified that these regulations do not pave the way for a real dollarization, but rather something much more limited.
"I am providing the examples that appear in the resolution so that our listeners can see that the final outcome of this story is that Cuba will never dollarize," the economist explained.
To illustrate this, he referred to a specific case taken from the regulation itself: the 80/20 scheme established by Resolution 103/2026. Under this mechanism, an exporter who receives 10,000 euros for, let's say, two tons of soursop, only retains 8,000 in foreign currency. The remaining 2,000 are converted to Cuban pesos at the current exchange rate. "Cuban pesos, exactly what people do not want," Amor concluded.
The Ministry of Economy itself acknowledges in its communications that the new regulations entail a "partial dollarization," but clarifies that this "does not mean dollarizing the economy" in a total sense. Amor agrees with this interpretation but goes further: the major state sectors — health, education, public administration — will continue to operate in Cuban pesos, which structurally makes full dollarization impossible.
The economist also described the chaos that currently reigns in the Cuban currency system. He cited a comment from a viewer of CiberCuba: "There's a mess with the stores that doesn't make sense. They switch from MLC to dollars, and days later they go back to MLC, and so on—it's total madness." Amor confirmed that this perception is accurate and recalled an incident that generated significant public outrage: when stores returned candies instead of change in cash. "In Cuba, given the current situation, at this moment, 20 cents are quite valuable," he noted.
This context of monetary dysfunction is exacerbated by macroeconomic data. The informal dollar surpassed 700 Cuban pesos in mid-September, marking a new record, and on Tuesday it was quoted at 718 CUP in the informal market. ECLAC projects a contraction of the Cuban GDP between 6.5% and 10.3% in 2026, and the fiscal deficit exceeds 12% of GDP.
Regarding the possibility of a transitional government choosing to dollarize the economy, Amor also ruled it out. He argued that without foreign currency reserves or solid economic fundamentals, Cuba lacks the capacity to sustain that process. "In a transition, I imagine that those who govern that country will make enough mistakes to realize that linking the Cuban economy to the dollar could be detrimental," he stated.
The debate takes place during a period of intense focus on economic analysis regarding Cuba. The Harvard report on democratic transition, also published on September 10 by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, proposes a social market economy and the release of political prisoners as the first step. Amor prefers the term "market economy" alone, recalling that in Cuba "there has been no market for 67 years, but rather central planning in resource allocation and an absolutely perverse system of price control."
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