A group of academics, economists, activists, and specialists from Harvard University presented a proposal to address the deep crisis on the island, which includes a general amnesty for political prisoners and the call for a new Constitutional Assembly in the medium to long term.
The document, published on September 10 under the title Harvard Group Work Report on the Future of Cuba, presents a strong diagnosis: Cuba is experiencing an economic, political, demographic, energy, health, food, educational, and infrastructure crisis that threatens the stability and future of the country.
The responsible parties clarify that this is a "living document, under construction," which will be subject to consultations, revisions, and modifications. The contributions are made by the participants in their individual capacity and do not necessarily represent the positions of the institutions to which they are affiliated.
A bankrupt economy and a country that is emptying out
The report attributes the economic bankruptcy of Cuba to "decades of inefficiency and misguided economic and investment policies", although it also states that the recent punitive measures by the United States have exacerbated the effects of the crisis on the population.
Between 2019 and 2024, according to data collected by the Working Group, Cuba's gross domestic product fell by 11%, agricultural production decreased by 58%, and the manufacturing sector declined by 42%. Sugar production plummeted by 87%.
The decline is even more evident in some essential foods. Between 2017 and 2024, pork production fell by 97%; rice by 75%; beans by 80%; milk by 56%; vegetables by 69%; and root vegetables by 46%. Cuba currently imports over 70% of its food, including products historically associated with national production, such as sugar and coffee.
The economic debacle is compounded by what the document refers to as a "demographic vacuum." The accumulated migratory balance between 2013 and 2024 exceeds three million people, compared to the 11.1 million inhabitants recorded in the 2012 census. This is further exacerbated by an extremely low fertility rate and a number of deaths exceeding births since at least 2020.
The result is also a rapid aging of the population: around 25% of the Cuban population is currently over 60 years old, according to the figures cited in the report.
Hospitals, hunger, power outages, and deteriorating cities
The Working Group describes a state that is increasingly unable to provide basic services. The deterioration affects the electrical system, water supply, transportation, waste collection, hospitals, and schools.
In terms of food, the document references a 2026 study from the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights which indicates that eight out of ten people skip one of the three daily meals due to lack of resources.
Housing is another major issue. The housing deficit exceeds 800,000 units and a significant portion of the residential stock is in poor or fair condition. The report also highlights the deterioration of roads, bridges, and railways.
The authors contrast these shortcomings with the government's investment policy. Between 2014 and 2024, tourism received between 25% and 50% of the country's total investment. In 2024, the tourism investments were 14 times higher than those allocated to the agricultural sector and 11 times greater than those corresponding to health, social assistance, and education.
The fundamental problem is political
Beyond the economic figures, the report places at the center of the crisis a political problem: the profound erosion of the legitimacy of the Cuban government, its inability to solve national problems, and the existence of authoritarian structures that restrict entrepreneurship, artistic creation, scientific activity, and public debate.
The document pays special attention to the government’s response to the protests of July 11, 2021, and recalls the "combat order" issued at that time by Miguel Díaz-Canel, followed by a wave of repression and the imprisonment of hundreds of demonstrators.
According to data from Prisoners Defenders cited in the report, at the end of June 2026, there were more than 1,300 political prisoners in Cuba.
The authors also question the effectiveness of the rule of law under the 2019 Constitution, pointing out the constitutional supremacy of the Communist Party, the lack of genuine balance among public powers, and the systematic violations of rights such as freedom of expression, press, association, and movement.
The report also calls for the repeal of regulations such as decrees 349, 370, and 35, which are used to restrict artistic creation, public expression, and the dissemination of content on the internet.
GAESA, a "State within the State"
The military conglomerate GAESA occupies a particularly critical position. The report states that it operates as a "State within the State", outside of ordinary institutional controls, and notes that its accounts are not public nor subject to effective audit by the National Assembly.
GAESA controls strategic sectors including tourism, energy, telecommunications, finance, real estate, supermarkets, and remittances, as well as certain industrial segments.
The document also questions the opacity of the discussions between the governments of Cuba and the United States and mentions the involvement of individuals connected to the Castro family without any known government responsibilities. Among them, it identifies Colonel Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro, whom it connects to the military-business structure.
Amnesty for political prisoners as a first step
In light of this situation, the Working Group maintains that “there is no solution” to the multiple crises facing the country without immediate political changes and steps toward a transition government perceived as legitimate.
Her proposal is based on a particularly relevant premise: the Cuban authorities themselves should take the initiative and act as facilitators of a peaceful transition, involving civil society, the opposition, the diaspora, the United States, and the international community.
The first step would be a general and unconditional amnesty for political prisoners.
The measure should be accompanied by the decriminalization of forms of protest, thought, and expression recognized even by the current Constitution, as well as the elimination of extralegal restrictions such as those applied to the so-called "regulated."
Any Cuban who wishes to should be able to leave and return to their homeland, states the document.
The role of the United States
The report suggests that an amnesty should receive an "immediate, positive, and forceful" response from Washington, beginning with the lifting of sanctions that impact fuel supply, followed by resources allocated to stabilize the economy and support reforms.
The authors argue that the Cuban crisis predates the tightening of U.S. policy and has deep internal causes, but they believe that the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have significantly worsened its humanitarian consequences.
The document characterizes current U.S. policies toward Cuba as "explicitly imperial" and questions how Washington can provide humanitarian aid while simultaneously maintaining measures that, according to the authors, exacerbate the emergency.
Private sector and diaspora to rebuild Cuba
In the economic sphere, the report highlights the leading role of the Cuban private sector, which now employs nearly a third of the workforce and has managed to develop despite regulatory restrictions and environmental challenges.
The proposal aims to liberalize the legal framework governing the productive use of land, encourage private food production, and leverage the capital, knowledge, and business networks of the diaspora.
It also proposes the reintegration of Cuba into international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and CAF, in addition to establishing transparent procedures for resolving claims related to confiscated properties.
The document also states that the diaspora could help liberalize U.S. trade and credit policies and, eventually, promote the repeal of the Helms-Burton Act.
The resources obtained should primarily be directed towards electricity, hospitals, health services, education, housing, transportation, and infrastructure, with policies aimed at preventing the reconstruction from worsening existing inequalities.
A new Constitution and a social market economy
In the medium and long term, the Working Group proposes to convene a new Constituent Assembly to initiate a national debate that has been postponed for decades and to lay the groundwork for a democratic and pluralistic system.
In the economic sphere, it advocates for a "social market economy" capable of generating prosperity with greater equity and within a legal framework that acknowledges different forms of property, including private ownership.
The proposal also assigns an essential role to Cubans living outside the country. The document rejects the notion of reducing the diaspora to just a source of remittances and defines Cuba as a transnational nation composed of both those who remain on the island and those who reside abroad.
The Working Group acknowledges that building consensus among such different actors will be challenging, but it believes that a negotiated and peaceful democratic transition is a possible solution to a scenario it deems unsustainable.
"We are aware that a democratic transition in Cuba requires the shared will of diverse actors such as the island's government, the United States administration, diaspora organizations, the international community, opposition sectors, and civil society," the report concludes. "Building that consensus will not be easy. But for Cuba and Cubans, it is simply the only option."
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