The economist Elías Amor warns that Cuba needs to grow at least 5% of GDP for a full decade in order to modernize its infrastructure and come closer to the living standards of its Caribbean neighbors, a goal that he himself describes as an "economic miracle" and that starkly contrasts with the current reality of the island.
"The Cuban economy needs to grow at a GDP rate of around 5 percent for at least a decade. That will be our economic miracle," Amor stated in an interview with Tania Costa, in which they discussed Cuba's economic future following the collapse of the communist system.
The list of priorities outlined by Amor is extensive: “Roads, energy, buildings, transportation, seaports, air travel. Everything needs to be modified; everything must be adapted.” The deterioration of these infrastructures is well-documented: 75% of the country's roads were found to be in fair or poor condition, according to official recognition in 2023, and the Minister of Transport, Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila, acknowledged in January 2025 the failure of the road recovery program.
The specific objective set by Amor is to reach the per capita income level of Dominican Republic. “I would be satisfied if in five years we reach the level of the Dominican Republic.” The neighboring country recorded a per capita GDP of approximately US$11,059 in 2025, according to the World Bank, and is projected to grow between 3.6% and 4.5% in 2026.
The gap between that aspiration and the current situation in Cuba is staggering. CEPAL projects a contraction of 10.3% for the island in 2026, the worst decline in all of Latin America and the Caribbean this year, according to the regional organization.
This figure is even more concerning when compared to previous estimates: in April 2026, CEPAL had already estimated a decline of -6.5%, while The Economist Intelligence Unit projected it at -7.2%. The Cuban government, for its part, officially projected a growth of 1% for 2026, a figure that economist Pedro Monreal already questioned by noting that the GDP only achieved 51% of the plans in 2025.
The previous year was not better either. The Cuban economy fell by 5% in 2025, according to the Centre for Cuban Economic Studies, making Cuba and Haiti the only two countries in the region with a decline in GDP during that period, according to CEPAL.
Amor also noted that Cuba’s natural trading partner is the United States, although he advocated for keeping the Cuban peso alongside the dollar in any scenario of economic opening.
The debate comes weeks after the meeting on August 26 between Miguel Díaz-Canel and representatives from the private sector, a gathering in which the government itself acknowledged that "prejudices and obstacles" persist against private entrepreneurs on the island.
"Cuba has to grow at that pace," Amor insisted, making it clear that without sustained growth, any promise of modernization will remain a mere piece of paper.
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