A panel of analysts recently debated whether Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," is in a real position to assume power in Cuba following the death of his grandfather Raúl Castro, and the response was emphatic: yes, although not necessarily due to his intellectual merits.
“Are you ready? Yes, of course I am. Well, the intellectual abilities, which according to all evidence are not the highest, of which there is no record, since we have only seen him speak once,” pointed out one of the panelists in the program, where Manuel Milanés, Sayde Chaling-Chong, and Jorge de Armas participated.
But the key to the analysis lies not in the abilities of the heir, but in the survival logic that underpins it. "When Raúl dies, who will succeed him? Those who do not want to disappear. Those who will see in him the only possibility they have to survive," explained one of the participants.
Generals, colonels, lieutenant colonels: the entire military and security leadership of the regime has its own reasons for keeping the heir in power. "He is ensured his own survival in the weakness of the totalitarian structure," summarized one of the panelists.
The analyst Jorge de Armas describes the Castro regime as a "sultanate" of interdependencies that goes far beyond ideology. "In the sultanate, there are interdependencies, many of which are backed not only by well-being because it's your home, your travels, your cars, your power plant," he pointed out, describing a network of privileges that binds the elite to the heir just as much as he needs them.
According to the panel, that network operates as "a completely mafia-like structure, entirely extortionate, entirely coercive," and it is precisely those actors who "are going to support El Cangrejo."
The grandson of Raúl Castro, who is around 41 years old, holds the rank of lieutenant colonel or colonel in MININT and leads the General Directorate of Personal Security, the unit responsible for physically protecting his grandfather. His nickname is attributed to the fact that he was born with six fingers on one hand. Until this year, he operated from the shadows, but his visibility surged in May when the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, met with him in Havana, and in June, he spoke publicly for the first time, defending what he called a "new model."
The panelists also warn that El Cangrejo "has been prepared like heirs are prepared, in conversations, at rallies," and that for the role assigned to him "he is perfectly qualified."
Chaling-Chong issued a direct warning to those who underestimate him: "Keep underestimating El Cangrejo, and you are going to have a scare." The analyst also maintained that "the year 2026 is the final year of the Cuban dictatorship," although he acknowledged that the outcome largely depends on external factors, especially those from Washington. In this regard, the panel noted that Marco Rubio opened the door to working with figures from the regime if there is a real transition, while the chancellor Bruno Rodríguez accused him of lying by stating that negotiations are ongoing.
The Cuban exile, for its part, received a critical evaluation. "We are a very weak exile, a very fragmented exile, an exile that has helped to divide us from its own roots, and we have not prepared for the transition," acknowledged Chaling-Chong.
"The end, of course, is irreversible and unalterable," concluded the analyst, making it clear that, regardless of the maneuvers of the heir or his grandfather, the collapse of the regime is, in his opinion, a matter of time.
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