The Cuban economist Elaine Castro Castañeda published an analysis on Facebook this Thursday that dismantles, point by point, what she calls "the complete trap" of the Cuban regime in response to the new financial sanctions from the United States against the island.
The trigger is the decision by the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Department of the Treasury (OFAC) to revoke, as of September 30th, the authorization that had allowed banks under U.S. jurisdiction to hold accounts for private Cuban entrepreneurs since 2024. The funds have been frozen and their release now requires a specific license. Díaz-Canel accused Washington of harming the Cuban private sector, and Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez defended the "proven efficiency" of GAESA, the business conglomerate of the Armed Forces.
Castro Castañeda, a degree holder in economics who left Cuba in 2018 and currently resides in Uruguay, outright rejects that account.
"Who made the Cuban depend on a MIPYME that belongs to them in order to eat? THE DICTATORSHIP," they write. They add, "They destroyed agriculture, prohibited private enterprise for 60 years, and now that everything is broken, they tell you that the only way to eat is thanks to them, and if the US touches their MIPYMES, you will starve."
The economist acknowledges that the impact is real for the average Cuban: MIPYMES are now the almost exclusive channel for accessing basic necessities like chicken, oil, and detergent, as well as receiving remittances from abroad. However, she warns that this is not an accident, but rather the deliberate result of decades of economic destruction.
"They make you dependent and then use your hunger as a shield," he summarizes.
The core of his argument points directly to GAESA, the economic arm of the Armed Forces, which controls at least 40% of Cuba's GDP, with assets estimated at over 18 billion dollars.
Castro Castañeda questions whether MIPYMES that handle half a million dollars are genuinely private companies and calls for a distinction between true private enterprises and front men.
"As long as GAESA controls 70% of the foreign exchange, any dollar that comes in, whether from MIPYME, remittances, or tourism, ends up in the hands of their own military to repress you afterward," he writes.
In response to those calling for the lifting of sanctions, the economist proposes three solutions: that the military withdraw from the economy, that genuine entrepreneurs be distinguished from fronts, and that free agricultural production on their own land be allowed for farmers.
Regarding the second point, he notes that OFAC has left a window open: section §515.584(h)(1) remains in effect and allows accounts to receive payments from authorized or exempt transactions and remit them to Cuba. "If you are a legitimate designer in Cuba, you can still get paid. The one who is crying is the one who used the account to move half a million dollars' worth of chicken," he states.
Regarding the third point, she is categorical: "No sanction will make food appear if you do not produce food. As long as they cling to the idea that a farmer cannot own land and sell their harvest freely, they will continue to suffer, with or without measures."
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to GAESA as the "financial heart of the regime" and declared on Tuesday that Cuban military personnel "will not be able to steal money or make money at the expense" of the people. A former employee of the conglomerate recently revealed the presence of military counterintelligence within GAESA.
"The everyday Cuban suffers today because the regime has taken them hostage between sanctions and its monopoly. And the dictatorship cries not because it cares about your hunger, but because it hurts that they saw through its trick," concludes Castro Castañeda, before delivering his most forceful statement: "The solution is not to ask the U.S. to finance GAESA disguised as MIPYME. The solution is for Cuba to stop being a military estate."
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