The Cuban regime has once again postponed its expectations for improvement and stated that the results of the economic and social measures currently being implemented will begin to be seen in 2027.
Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz stated that the Government is "convinced" that there will be results next year, despite previous official forecasts regarding economic growth, blackouts, and recovery not being fulfilled.
The leader Miguel Díaz-Canel and the Prime Minister featured another episode this Friday of the official podcast "From the Presidency", which focused on the status of the 176 economic and social transformations. The question that no one in Cuba can avoid asking ended in a promise that sounds all too familiar: the results will come next year.
In 2024, the government assured that power outages would not exceed four hours a day in the summer of 2025, a goal that was not met.
In December of that same year, a GDP growth of 1% was projected for 2025, but the economy contracted by 5%. In August 2024, Marrero himself stated that the situation would improve in "five years."
This time, the Prime Minister acknowledged the central contradiction of the moment: "We already have the path open to move forward; and in fact, progress is being made and results are already evident, although improvements in the quality of life of the population have not yet been perceived."
To justify the lack of tangible results, Marrero argued that the last three months—July, August, and September—were dedicated to designing the "how" of the reforms, not to implementing them.
According to his statement, during that period, 160 implementation proposals were prepared and 197 legal regulations were approved to support them, including four laws, 29 decree-laws, and 26 decrees from the Council of Ministers.
It also announced the approval of more than 3,600 new microenterprises during that period, bringing the total to 16,100 in the country, along with 448 non-state cooperatives and over 385,000 self-employed workers.
In the energy sector, the regime reported 1,418 megawatts installed across 144 solar parks —representing 21.4% of total generation— along with an additional 566 megawatts installed by families and economic actors through private solar systems. The entry of 22,000 electric vehicles into the country was also mentioned.
However, the reality that Cubans experience contrasts sharply with these figures. CEPAL projects a decline of 10.3% in Cuba's GDP in 2026, the worst in Latin America, while year-on-year inflation reached 25.19% in August, with food prices rising by 36.01%.
The minimum wage is equivalent to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate, and the informal dollar surpassed 700 pesos in September, setting a new historical record.
The economist Elías Amor described the reform package, just one day before the podcast was published, as "a complete deception", pointing out that between January and May 2026, the net sales of the state sector fell by 29.2% and the number of unprofitable companies increased from 252 to 363.
The regime itself acknowledged in internal opinion studies that a portion of the population perceives that the benefits of the transformations only reach those who have money, and that the accentuation of inequalities generates resentment.
Marrero tried to respond to those who doubt with another promise: "We are going to give our all to ensure that we move from words to action."
The 176 transformations approved in June include greater autonomy for state-owned enterprises, the opening to private banking, municipal decentralization, and incentives for renewable energy, which the regime describes as the largest structural reform since the Special Period.
Cuba has experienced an approximately 26% decline in its economy since 2020, with three consecutive years of contraction and eight nationwide blackouts throughout 2026.
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