Senator Flávio Bolsonaro prevailed this Sunday over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil's presidential elections, receiving 47.06% of valid votes compared to the 45.13% of the incumbent president, according to the official results from the Superior Electoral Court with 99.88% of votes counted.
The difference between the two was approximately 2.3 million votes —56,075,582 votes for Bolsonaro versus 53,778,788 for Lula—, which was not enough to surpass the 50% threshold required by Brazilian law to win in the first round. Both will face each other in the runoff on October 25.
The result is a significant victory for Flávio Bolsonaro, 45 years old, who was initially seen as a weak candidate and is also facing a corruption investigation. The firstborn son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—sentenced to 27 years in prison for leading a coup plot and currently under house arrest since March—was appointed as the Liberal Party (PL) candidate by his father from jail in early December 2025.
Lula, at 80 years old, is aiming for a historic fourth term, but the outlook for the runoff election appears very unfavorable: he ran as the sole candidate of the progressives, leaving him little room to gather additional support. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, practically has the votes of the eliminated right-wing candidates secured, which account for about 7%.
The political analyst Creomar de Souza was emphatic when assessing the president's prospects in the runoff: “Historically, we have never seen a comeback in a runoff election in Brazil. It is a very, very difficult scenario for Lula,” he told the BBC. The same analyst noted that “Flávio's campaign was very effective, especially in the last seven days, communicating that, in the end, it was not about Flávio Bolsonaro, but about removing Lula from power.”
The day was also favorable for Bolsonarism on other fronts. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, was re-elected with a 26-point lead over his rival Fernando Haddad. The PL gained strength in Congress, paving the way for amnesty for those convicted of the coup assault on January 8, 2023. Jair's wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, 44, and two of their children, Carlos and Jair Renan, were elected as parliamentarians. Flávio has promised to pardon his father if he reaches the presidency.
Bolsonaro's partial victory is part of the right-wing wave sweeping through Latin America, with recent victories of Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru, along with similar shifts earlier in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Honduras, as noted by El País. Among the first congratulatory messages Bolsonaro received was from Colombian president De la Espriella, who stated that "the true change is to defeat the left."
The outcome has direct implications for Cuba. Under Lula, a historic ally of Havana, Brazil maintained a policy of cooperation with the island: it sent thousands of tons of food and donated medicines to treat hundreds of patients.
Additionally, more than 13,000 Cubans applied for refuge in Brazil between January and April of this year, which represents 58% of the total applications during that period. An eventual government under Flávio Bolsonaro would signify a return to his father's approach, who during his term (2019-2022) questioned the Mais Médicos program, called Díaz-Canel a "dictator," and adopted an overtly hostile stance towards Havana.
The second round on October 25 will determine whether Brazil definitively joins the regional ultraconservative wave or if Lula can make a comeback that, according to analysts, has never happened in the country's electoral history.
Related videos:
Filed under: