The Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera warned that the research system 92L, located in the Gulf of Mexico, has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone this week and pointed out that northwest Florida is within the broad area that should stay alert to its evolution.
In an analysis published on his YouTube channel, Rubiera explained that the chances of system development had significantly increased and cited the forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which at that time estimated the probabilities at 60% over the next 48 hours and 80% in seven days.
"It is a high probability," noted the specialist, who recalled that just the night before, the system had a 0% chance of development in 48 hours and a 60% chance in seven days.
Rubiera considered that 92L “is most likely going to be a tropical cyclone” and could reach at least the category of a tropical storm.
It also indicated that some models even anticipated strengthening to hurricane status, although it emphasized that it was still too early to confirm that.
The meteorologist devoted special attention to the possible trajectories toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. The main models he presented at that moment pointed to an area near Mississippi and Alabama, though with a considerable margin of uncertainty.
Rubiera explained that, if a rough area of higher probability could be outlined—although there is still no official cone because the system has not formed—this would be quite broad and would cover areas from regions close to Texas to the north of Florida.
By narrowing down the distribution of the models, he placed the most probable area between Mississippi and Alabama, but noted that the outer limits extended into Louisiana to the west and as far as the northwest of Florida to the east.
"This can change significantly because the cyclone has not yet formed. It first needs to develop; once it does, there will be more factors, more solid factors," he warned.
For that reason, Rubiera advised those living along the extensive stretch of the Gulf coast to stay alert for updates in the coming days.
According to their analysis, the system could initially move very slowly to the east and then turn towards the north and northeast, getting closer to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Regarding the immediate weather in Florida, Rubiera forecasted for this Tuesday showers and storms, some potentially strong, primarily in the north and central parts of the state, while in the south they would be more isolated.
However, those conditions should not be confused with a direct impact from 92L. In his explanation, Rubiera included them in the general forecast for Florida while the tropical system is still in the development phase in the Gulf.
Rubiera concluded his analysis by emphasizing that the system could develop into a tropical storm and even reach hurricane strength, but he stressed that it is still too early to determine where it might make landfall.
"We need to pay attention in the coming days to the evolution and development of this tropical system," he stated.
The situation continued to evolve after the publication of its analysis. In its update at 8:00 p.m. EDT this Monday, the National Hurricane Center raised the probability of formation to 70% within 48 hours and maintained the probability at 80% for seven days. The agency expects that a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week.
The NHC also indicated that 92L could slowly move towards the northeast over the next two days before turning north, and emphasized that it is still too early to determine specific impacts on the northern Gulf coast.
Hours earlier, the likelihood of the system developing had reached 80% in seven days, putting a large area of the U.S. Gulf coast under watch.
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