The Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera warned this Thursday about the rapid progression of the Tropical Storm Dolly towards the Lesser Antilles, although forecasts suggest that the system could weaken before reaching the Caribbean.
In a special program broadcast on his channel RubieraTiempo, the expert explained that the tropical wave known as 96L gained organization during the early hours and morning of Thursday, eventually becoming the fourth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
"Despite the fact that the conditions are not favorable for significant development, it has arrived at tropical storm status due to this circumstance," Rubiera explained.
According to the Advisory Number 2 from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), issued at 5:00 p.m. Atlantic time, Dolly was located about 2,290 kilometers east of the Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h.
The storm was moving west at 39 km/h, a speed that Rubiera described as "quite fast." Its tropical storm-force winds extended up to 95 kilometers from the center, and, at that time, there were no watches or warnings in effect.
What could happen to Dolly?
The forecasts place the system near the north of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, but there is a significant chance that it will arrive weakened.
The NHC bulletin predicts little change in its intensity over the next 48 hours and notes that Dolly could weaken into a tropical wave before reaching the Windward Islands.
Rubiera coincided with that scenario.
"There is a possibility that it may not arrive here as a tropical storm, but rather as a weaker system and possibly as a strong tropical wave," he noted.
However, the weakening of the system does not eliminate the risk of heavy rains. The NHC warned that Dolly or its remnants could cause flash flooding in the Leeward Islands starting Saturday night.
The rainfall could later extend to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during Sunday and Monday, with particular attention to the mountainous areas.
Rubiera urged the residents of the eastern Caribbean to stay informed about the development of the phenomenon.
"The inhabitants of the Lesser Antilles, especially the northeast and to a lesser extent Puerto Rico, which is further back, should stay alert to the circumstances of this tropical system whose path is heading toward that area," he warned.
For the moment, the forecasts cited do not indicate a direct threat to Cuba, and the evolution of Dolly after it moves through the eastern Caribbean will depend, among other factors, on how well it can maintain its organization.
The Atlantic hurricane season extends until November 30. In May, the Cuban Meteorology Institute (INSMET) predicted a season less active than normal for the island, although it estimated a 75% probability that at least one tropical storm would affect the country during the period.
Related videos:
Filed under: