Alina Bárbara López: "Cuba needs people to organize from within and support from outside."

The Cuban philosopher and historian Alina Bárbara López Hernández, confined in Matanzas under house arrest, published an essay in the Journal of Democracy from Johns Hopkins University, in which she examines the state of Cuban civil society and the realistic possibilities for a democratic transition on the Island.

In the text titled "Cubans Lead from Within," the intellectual argues that social discontent has moved from social media to the streets, but warns about the fragmentation of activism and the lack of structures capable of sustaining political change.

Consider that civil society on the Island is undergoing a transformation amid power outages, shortages, and the decline of public services, but warns that discontent alone does not guarantee a democratic transition.

In an article, the professor also analyzes the evolution of independent activism in Cuba, the challenges it faces under state repression, and the obstacles that still hinder the transformation of local protests into an organized national movement.

López Hernández explained on Facebook that the text was developed in collaboration: the analysis of the Cuban reality reflects his perspective, while the final assessment was provided from the editors' experience in studying pro-democracy movements around the world.

The Cuban crisis and social discontent

The author describes a country struck by the energy collapse, the worsening of poverty, and the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies that for years supported electric generation and transportation.

This scenario is further complicated by the emigration of lawyers, journalists, organizers, and others with the necessary skills to promote a democratic opening. The departure of these professionals makes it difficult for activism within Cuba to establish stable structures and replace the leadership that leaves the country.

According to the explanation, the current crisis cannot be solely attributed to material difficulties. In addition to the deterioration of living conditions, there are decades of restrictions on civil and political rights, along with the growing ability of citizens to inform themselves and question the official narrative through the Internet.

The author identifies three fundamental transformations: dissent has begun to emerge from the virtual realm, the Cuban government has lost Venezuela as its main benefactor, and immigration restrictions have limited the possibility for emigration to serve as a safety valve. "Cubans know that they will have to deal with the crisis from within," she stated.

From social media to street protests

López Hernández identifies one of the turning points in the protests of July 11, 2021, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets in various locations to express their discontent.

However, it is important to consider that the methods of mobilization have changed. Prolonged blackouts and the deterioration of telecommunications infrastructure make real-time national coordination difficult, which is why many protests are now concentrated in neighborhoods, blocks, and municipalities.

The author also highlights the protests at universities following the rise in Internet fees on May 30, 2025. In her opinion, the restriction of Internet access ended up pushing discontent into the public space, rather than keeping it confined to the digital environment.

Another important change, he argues, is that demands have shifted away from solely focusing on basic needs. Alongside requests for electricity, water, food, and medicine, there are now explicit calls for freedom and political change.

As an example, mention the events from last March in Morón, Ciego de Ávila, where residents set fire to the Communist Party headquarters, as well as daytime protests, street closures, burning of trash, demonstrations outside government buildings, and the appearance of graffiti with slogans such as "Freedom", "Homeland and Life", and "Down with the dictatorship".

“People are learning not to wait for permission to demand, inform, organize, and claim their right to participate in public life. (...) Today, it is rare to find someone who does not admit, in public or in private, that they urgently desire change,” emphasizes López Hernández, who nonetheless points out that for this shift to endure, there must be “serious civic education and practice.”

Repression aims to prevent activism from organizing

One of the central arguments of the article is that Cuban civil society exists despite legal restrictions and repression against independent organizations.

Activism has resurfaced, encompassing a wide range of causes: from the defense of human rights and the documentation of abuses against political prisoners to protests for basic services, opposition to Mandatory Military Service, animal advocacy, and assistance to poor or sick families.

"From the outside, it is often assumed that state repression is driven by ideological motives, but this is not the case," clarifies the historian, who recalls that both critical opinions and leaderships, as well as connections that could allow citizens to organize, are punished. Among the mechanisms she describes are pressures to force emigration, restrictions on returning to the country, and movement limitations imposed on individuals remaining in Cuba.

The main obstacle: the lack of unity and organization

Although he acknowledges the growing discontent and the bravery of those who protest, López Hernández warns that the pro-democratic movement in Cuba continues to face significant weaknesses.

It mentions the personal rivalries among opposition figures, the lack of collaboration on common platforms, and the difficulties in presenting proposals that resonate with the everyday concerns of the population, without being reduced to ideological labels.

It also identifies a gap between some activists and the communities they aspire to represent. Repression, it notes, keeps them isolated from their own environments, while international attention often focuses on visible figures from the outside, leaving those who protest within the neighborhoods with less support.

For the author, the problem is not the lack of ideas for a transition. She mentions initiatives and roadmaps developed by organizations such as the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, D’Frente, Cuba Próxima, and CubaxCuba Civic Thought Laboratory.

The challenge lies in connecting those proposals with the local networks that are emerging amidst the crisis and building a structure capable of sustaining mobilization beyond isolated episodes.

But for her, the most important aspect of Cuban activism is not the organizations or their real power. "It's simpler than that; people are learning to stop waiting for permission, to raise demands, generate information, organize, and assert their right to participate in public life," she said.

The professor praises the work of citizen journalism and independent media in documenting repression, the decline of healthcare, education, and transportation, as well as the rise in crime and corruption.

"There's still a long way to go. Cuba needs people to organize from within and support from outside. But the path has been opened, and what comes next may depend less on its breadth and more on the level of organization that is achieved. A society begins to move past totalitarianism when it realizes it can think, organize, and act without asking anyone for permission," he expressed.

The transition depends on a civil society capable of acting from within

In the final part of the article, López Hernández briefly draws on international experiences to present a conclusion: democratic transitions require a civil society that has developed connections, organizational capacity, and legitimacy before a political opening occurs.

Her comparison suggests that the value of activism does not solely depend on the number of protests or the courage of those participating, but rather on its ability to endure over time and represent the demands of the citizenry.

In the Cuban case, it is believed that networks of mutual aid, protests that occur in broad daylight, and the expansion of demands for freedom could become the foundation for a stronger organization.

However, it warns that this process requires overcoming fragmentation and establishing connections between existing initiatives and the citizens who are mobilizing in their communities.

The author concludes that Cuba needs both people capable of organizing within the country and support from abroad. The future, she argues, will depend not only on the extent of that process but also on the level of organization it can achieve.

His argument is that democratic change cannot solely rely on the collapse of the system or negotiations between Cuban authorities and foreign actors. It requires a citizenry capable of formulating its own demands, getting informed, organizing, and participating in public life without depending on permission from those in power.

"There is still a long way to go. Cuba needs people to organize from within and support from outside. But the path has been opened, and what comes next may depend less on its scope than on the level of organization it achieves. A society begins to leave totalitarianism behind when it understands that it can think, organize, and act without asking anyone for permission," he concluded.