The return of María Corina Machado to Venezuela this Sunday, after almost ten months outside the country, marks the beginning of a phase that the prominent Venezuelan journalist and analyst Boris Muñoz describes in an opinion piece published in El País as the start of a much more demanding journey: the opposition leader will need to "weave more carefully" and "seek the least traumatic exit from chavismo without sacrificing the majority's thirst for justice."
Machado confirmed her arrival with a brief message on X: "I am here. With you." Her first public appearance was at the Church of Santa Rosa in Barquisimeto, Lara state, home to the sanctuary of the Virgin of the Divine Shepherdess, where enthusiastic supporters welcomed her with hugs and displays of devotion. Among the crowd, a mother cried out in desperation: "Bring me my children!", a scene that encapsulated the plight of the more than 7.8 million Venezuelans who have had to emigrate in recent years.
Muñoz acknowledges that the end of Machado's "odyssey" is a positive development, as it could reinvigorate a transition process that, in his view, suffers from three serious issues: it does not represent popular sentiment, is micromanaged from Washington, and has slowed down regime change through an opaque and bureaucratic process.
The analyst recalls that since January 3, 2026, when U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, "a trick by Trump left her out of the country's democratic transition that Machado was preparing to lead as a key figure." Since then, the Venezuelan government has been led by the interim president Delcy Rodríguez, and Washington is negotiating with that government the institutional reorganization of the country.
Regarding the specific circumstances of the return, Muñoz cites individuals from Machado's circle, who stated succinctly that "the logistical and political obstacles were overcome." They indicated that the opposition leader did not negotiate either with Dinorah Figuera's faction or with the Chavista government.
Marco Rubio, on the other hand, attributed the return to the U.S.-backed reconciliation dialogue, which would have allowed for the release of over 1,000 political prisoners. Meanwhile, Trump reacted cautiously: “She is a very nice woman. She gave me her Nobel Prize, so how can I say otherwise? And I hope she is safe.”
Muñoz emphasizes that Machado "is still walking on the edge of a knife with Trump" and that she will strategically challenge the Rodríguez government in order to not alienate the United States, her "paradoxical supporter." The analyst Carlos Blanco summarized in four points the immediate objectives of the leader: to mobilize the country to revive hope, to create a popular organization that brings together parties and civil society, to promote a broad opposition alliance, and to forge a large national agreement to overcome the crisis. With this agreement, Machado aims for presidential elections to be held in the first semester of 2027, the text notes.
For that task, the article outlines considerable assets: 52% of voting intention and 61% of positive personal assessment, a national structure capable of mobilizing millions of people and a high international profile.
The parallel with Cuba soon became evident: the founder of UNPACU, José Daniel Ferrer, took Machado's return as a model to urge the Cuban opposition to build an effective united structure and select a leader, making his own return to the island conditional on this circumstance: “I will go to Cuba with the leader of that effective and functional unity.”
The writer concludes his analysis in El País with a warning that encapsulates the complexity of the moment, referring to a phrase attributed to the 19th-century Venezuelan politician Antonio Guzmán Blanco: "Venezuela is like a dry hide: when you tread on one side, it rises on the other." A fourth round of negotiations between the Venezuelan government and the opposition is scheduled for November 2026.
Boris Muñoz holds a Ph.D. in Hispanic American Literature from Rutgers University and is the author of several books, including: La ley de la calle, testimonies from young protagonists of violence in Caracas (with José Roberto Duque), Más allá de la ciudad letrada. Chronicles and Urban Spaces (co-edited with Silvia Spitta), and Despachos del imperio (2007).
He has been a contributor, editor, and columnist for various media outlets in America and Europe. He served as a visiting professor at the Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard University and received the Maria Moors Cabot Prize from Columbia University.
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