A new survey published this Tuesday reveals that 54.6% of registered Latino voters in the United States plan to support Democratic candidates for Congress ahead of the midterm elections on November 3, while only 32.5% would back Republicans, representing a Democratic advantage of approximately 22 percentage points.
The survey, conducted by the Latino Public Opinion Forum at Florida International University (FIU) in collaboration with YouGov, consulted 1,539 registered Latino voters between October 9 and October 19, with a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points.
The approval rating of President Donald Trump among Latinos stands at just 32.9% nationally, according to data released by EFE, marking his lowest record with this group since he assumed his second term.
Economic pessimism dominates the mood of the Hispanic community: 64.6% believe that the country is "headed in the wrong direction" and 57.2% cite inflation or the cost of living as their main concern.
Only 24% of Latinos approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, the weakest indicator of his performance across all topics assessed by the survey.
Immigration policies also generate significant rejection: 64.7% believe that their implementation "has gone too far," and 41.4% express fear of being arrested or deported.
More than six out of ten Latinos believe that the Trump administration "has harmed Latino families" (60.7%) and that it "shows little to no respect for the Latino community" (63.3%).
Regarding specific preferences for immigration policy, 82% support requiring a court order to enter homes, 77% favor a pathway to citizenship, and only 29% are in favor of deporting all undocumented immigrants.
In Florida, a state where Latinos have historically shown greater affinity for Trump, the trend continues in the same direction, albeit with narrower margins: 47.5% would vote for Democratic candidates in the House compared to 38.5% who would support Republicans, and the president's approval rating among Hispanics in the state stands at 39.8%.
In the state races, Democrat David Jolly holds an initial lead of 4.3 points over Republican Byron Donalds in the governor's race, and Democrat Angie Nixon is ahead by 3.4 points against Republican Ashley Moody in the Senate, although both margins fall within the error range of ±4.8 points in the Florida sample.
However, among the Cuban-American voters in Florida, Donalds leads by nine points —51% compared to Jolly's 42%— according to a separate N+Univision/YouGov poll published on October 22.
This shift contrasts with the historical progress Trump made among Latinos in the 2024 presidential election, when he secured between 42% and 46% of the Hispanic vote, his best Republican result since George W. Bush in 2004.
A May 2026 UnidosUS survey already warned that one in four Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 would not support him again.
Eduardo Gamarra, director of the LPOF at FIU, noted that the data "reflects more of a disconnection from the Republicans than an automatic return to the Democratic Party," a warning that strategists from both parties should take into account before November 3rd.
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