Six out of ten Cuban-Americans residing in Miami-Dade consider it unlikely that they will return to live in Cuba, even if the island were to experience a political change.
This is revealed by the 2026 edition of the FIU Cuba Poll, the longest-running series of surveys on Cuban-American opinion in South Florida, led by sociologists Guillermo J. Grenier and Qing Lai from Florida International University (FIU).
The full report asked respondents about the likelihood of their returning to live in Cuba if a political change occurred.
63% responded that it would be highly unlikely.
An additional 15% considers it "not very likely," 14% sees it as "somewhat likely," and only 8% rates it as "very likely."
In total, 78% rule out or consider unlikely a permanent return, while 22% contemplate that possibility.
The economic landscape is even less appealing
The survey included a parallel question about returning in the event of an economic improvement.
In that scenario, the resistance is even greater: 70% believe it would be very unlikely to return, and only 16% see it as likely.
A hypothetical political change raises the proportion of those considering a return from 16% to 22%, but the majority still finds a return unlikely.
Among the respondents aged 76 and older, 79% believe it is highly unlikely they would return to live in Cuba even if the economic situation on the island improved.
Who would consider returning?
The breakdown by subgroups reveals generational and migratory differences.
In the face of a political change, those who show the greatest willingness to return are those who arrived after 2020 (39%), non-U.S. citizens (36%), and those under 40 years old (25%).
On the opposite end, migrants who arrived before 1995 (18%) and respondents aged 76 or older (17%) are the least likely to consider returning in the event of a political change.
Links to the island, but little intention of returning
71% of the respondents have close relatives on the island, a proportion that reaches 92% among those who arrived after 2020.
Sixty percent sent food or other goods to Cuba in the last year, and forty-five percent send remittances.
Despite those ties, the intention of permanent return is in the minority.
The survey also indicates that 89% of the participants are U.S. citizens.
Expectations for Political Change in Cuba
The survey also assessed when Cuban-Americans expect a political change to occur on the island.
29% believe it will never happen; 22% anticipate it within less than a year, and 19% expect it within a two to five year period.
Overall, about 40% expect it to happen within a five-year horizon, while 11% believe that changes are already underway.
Republicans (27%) outnumber Democrats (13%) in the expectation of a change within a year.
Respondents aged 76 and older are the most pessimistic group: 39% choose the option "never."
Methodology
The FIU Cuba Poll 2026, the seventeenth edition of a series that began in 1991, is based on a weighted sample of 1,004 adults of Cuban origin residing in Miami-Dade.
The interviews were conducted from September 4 to 29 using a bilingual telephone system; 62.9% were carried out in Spanish.
The maximum reported margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The results should not be automatically extrapolated to the entire Cuban diaspora.
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