The National Electric Union (UNE) forecasts an impact of 1,965 MW this Sunday during peak demand hours, according to the official report of the National Electric System published this morning. The system will have an availability of only 965 MW against a projected demand of 2,900 MW, resulting in a generation deficit of 1,935 MW.
The balance for Saturday, October 31, closed worse than anticipated: the maximum impact reached 2,022 MW at 19:20, exceeding the previous forecast by 212 MW of 1,810 MW for that day. The statement itself attributes the deviation to a specific factor: "the maximum impact was 2,022 MW at 19:20, higher than planned due to the delay in the entry of unit 6 of Nuevitas."
At 06:00 this Sunday, the observed situation was already critical: 965 MW available against a demand of 2,350 MW, with 1,380 MW affected at that moment. For the midday period, it is estimated that 1,450 MW will be out of service, a figure that would rise to 1,965 MW during the nighttime peak.
The limitations in thermal generation reach 630 MW. Three units are under maintenance: unit 3 of the Santa Cruz power plant (Ernesto Guevara de la Serna), unit 5 of the Nuevitas power plant (10 de Octubre), and unit 5 of the Renté power plant (Antonio Maceo). Out of service are unit 1 of Santa Cruz, unit 2 of Felton (Lidio Ramón Pérez), and units 3 and 6 of Renté.
Photovoltaic solar parks produced 4,204 MWh on Saturday, with a maximum capacity of 654 MW during peak hours, about 110 MW more than on Friday. However, this generation does not compensate for the structural deficit: during the nighttime peak, when demand reaches its highest point, solar energy is non-existent.
The forecast for this Sunday indicates an increase of 155 MW compared to the previous day. The last days of October consistently surpassed 2,000 MW of impact: 2,004 MW on the 29th, 2,039 MW on the 30th, and 2,022 MW on the 31st, in a month where the worst record was on October 2nd with 2,130 MW affected.
The crisis is unevenly spreading across the territory. In Holguín, according to the official channel of the provincial electric company, the maximum duration of outages reached 17 hours and 32 minutes this Sunday, while circuits such as La Caridad, La Naza, and Nipe experienced up to 24 hours and 15 minutes without service by the close of Saturday. In Cienfuegos, state enterprises acknowledged continuous cuts ranging from 70 to 89 hours by the end of October. In Havana, 168 circuits remained affected by the end of Saturday afternoon, with an impact of 385 MW due to a generation deficit.
With the expected availability for the peak this Sunday, the Cuban electrical system would barely cover one third of the anticipated maximum demand.
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