The United States' allied countries in the Persian Gulf are preparing for intense American bombardment against Iran, which they fear could trigger a cycle of retaliation against their own economic and civilian infrastructure as early as this week, according to an investigation by the Wall Street Journal published on Monday.
The alarm in the region is intensifying as diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with both Washington and Tehran warning that any resumption of the conflict would be particularly destructive.
It appears that Donald Trump has leaned towards a large post-election attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, although he has not yet made a definitive decision.
At a rally in Iowa on Sunday, the U.S. president hinted at his stance: "The only reason I haven't dealt with Iran is that I want to be nice. I want to try to save all those lives if I can. But at some point, we’ll have to hit them with the hammer."
In a phone call on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Trump to launch attacks immediately after the midterm elections taking place this Tuesday, while Trump preferred to allow more time for diplomatic avenues, according to individuals familiar with the conversation.
A sign that Washington may be nearing a decision was the in-person visit of Admiral Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, to the White House on October 29 to present military options to the president, a meeting considered unusual since Cooper rarely conducts such in-person briefings.
On the diplomatic front, the conversations mediated by Qatar remain stalled regarding who should make concessions first. Vice President JD Vance sent a letter at the end of October to Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top national security official, to explore negotiations concerning the nuclear program; Tehran received it politely but has not formally responded.
The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi returned to Tehran from Doha on Sunday without a sufficient agreement to initiate a visit from U.S. negotiators.
Meanwhile, Qatar proposed to shorten the confidence-building period for reopening the Strait of Hormuz from the initial seven days to just two days, during which the U.S. would ease its naval blockade if Iran ceased its attacks on shipping in the strait.
The tension has already escalated into an armed incident: a U.S. fighter jet destroyed an Iranian surface-to-air missile launcher on Qeshm Island after the Revolutionary Guard fired at a U.S. military aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Gulf countries fear that Iran, unable to stop U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, may choose to strike at its more vulnerable neighbors across the Persian Gulf.
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have conducted security exercises at airports; schools in Riyadh remain in virtual mode; and the embassies of the Netherlands and Belgium warned that security conditions could deteriorate rapidly.
Anwar Gargash, foreign policy advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates, acknowledged at a security conference that the country hoped diplomacy would thrive, but was "prepared for the worst."
Oil markets reflect volatility: Brent fell by more than 6% on Monday amid hopes for an agreement, but recovered this Tuesday following the attack on Qeshm, hovering around 106 dollars per barrel.
Experts warn that the margin to prevent a greater escalation is narrow. "There is no scenario in which a short and decisive U.S. attack would be absorbed by Iran," stated Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "An intense campaign of infrastructure attacks by Washington will likely provoke a similar response from Tehran against U.S. partners."
"Tthere are still substantial differences between both sides, making escalation seem inevitable," warned Ali Vaez, an expert on Iran and deputy director of the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group. "Things will get very ugly very quickly".
Related videos:
Filed under: