Donald Trump has once again set a date for the future of the Cuban regime. In an interview granted on Friday to journalist Benny Johnson, the American president stated that the situation on the island will be "definitely" resolved before the end of his term.
However, this is not the first time he has announced upcoming events for Cuba: in July, he talked about a timeframe of two months, and now he mentions a horizon of up to two and a half years.
"We have Marco looking at it extremely closely. His parents are from Cuba. And that will definitely be resolved within these two and a half years. Before that, actually," Trump stated, referring to Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
The promise comes more than three months after another statement that aroused great expectations among Cubans. On July 15, during an interview with Trey Yingst from Fox News, the president assured that "many things are going to happen in Cuba in the next perhaps two months".
That deadline passed in mid-September without a decisive political change occurring in Havana. It is true that Trump had not promised the fall of the regime within two months at that time, but rather events that he deliberately left unspecified.
During that period, Washington announced new sanctions, intensified pressure on strategic Cuban sectors, and maintained contacts with representatives of the power on the island. However, the political transformation the president presents as a goal remains pending.
In early September, the U.S. administration sanctioned a grandson of Raúl Castro, the Banco Exterior de Cuba, and several state entities. Two weeks later, it expanded measures against military institutions and companies linked to nickel.
On September 22, Trump stated before the United Nations that Rubio was conducting talks with Cuba and suggested that his Secretary of State had found a way to resolve the issue. However, four days later, he dismissed the need for military intervention and favored a negotiated agreement.
A promise conditioned by Iran
The uncertainty regarding timelines has another component: Trump has repeatedly subordinated his upcoming moves regarding Cuba to the conclusion of military operations against Iran.
On May 1st, he stated that the United States would act on Cuba "almost immediately" after finishing in Iran, and envisioned an American aircraft carrier off the coast of Cuba to compel the regime's surrender.
On October 23, he essentially repeated the same message during a rally in Fort Myers. He announced that U.S. warships would pass in front of Cuba on their return from the Middle East and that he would send Rubio to "seal the deal".
A week later, in the interview with Johnson, he insisted on that sequence: first conclude the operations against Iran and then focus on Cuba, whose future he again linked to the Venezuelan precedent.
However, Washington has not announced when the Iranian campaign will end, nor has it presented a concrete timeline of measures to achieve political change in Cuba. It has also not clarified whether the timeframe mentioned by Trump corresponds to a negotiation, a potential exit of leaders, or a transformation of the system.
Two conflicting calendars
While Trump asserts that the Cuban regime will not survive his presidency, Havana bets precisely on enduring until the political circumstances in the United States change.
The chancellor Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla stated to the New York Times that the Cuban regime will endure the pressure "for as long as necessary", convinced that Washington will eventually change its strategy or the current administration's term will come to an end.
The United States' policy towards Cuba is going to change. It has to change; it is inevitable that it will change, said the minister.
A recent analysis by CNN indicated that Cuban officials are hopeful that a Republican setback in the legislative elections on November 3, combined with the ongoing conflict with Iran, will cause Cuba to be sidelined in U.S. priorities.
The regime's strategy consists, once again, of buying time. For its leaders, enduring another two years could mean an opportunity for political survival. For millions of Cubans, however, it means extending a crisis marked by shortages, blackouts, inflation, and the deterioration of public services.
The successive American promises have also fueled skepticism. When Trump announced in July that significant events would take place in two months, many Cubans reacted with irony and frustration. One of the questions that emerged on social media was particularly revealing: "Will there be any Cubans alive by that date?".
The new presidential reference points to approximately the end of his second term, on January 20, 2029, although Trump insists that the outcome will come sooner.
For now, Washington and Havana also seem to be waging a battle against time: Trump promises that the regime will not last until his departure from the White House; the Cuban leadership is confident that it can survive his presidency. Those who cannot afford to wait indefinitely are the Cubans who endure the consequences of this confrontation every day.
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