The Vice President of the United States, JD Vance, acknowledged this Wednesday the extent of the Republican defeat in the legislative elections on November 3 and stated that many Americans who had voted for Donald Trump in 2024 ended up supporting Democratic candidates in these elections.
In a lengthy post on his X account, Vance stated that the war against Iran was the main cause of his party's electoral failure, surpassing the participation issues that some Republican leaders had pointed out.
"The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said it last night," wrote the vice president, in one of his most forceful assessments of the political consequences of the conflict.
His statements come after the Democrats regained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, in an election day marked by significant victories for the opposition even in traditionally Republican states.
Vance admits that Republican voters went to the polls but changed their vote
The vice president explained that the analysts from his campaign had been paying special attention to the composition of the electorate to determine if the Republicans could replicate the conditions that favored the presidential victory of 2024.
The participation data provided reasons for optimism. In some states, Republican mobilization was reasonable, while in others, it was extraordinarily high.
However, one of his main data advisors had warned him about a much more difficult problem to solve: many voters who had supported Trump and Vance two years earlier were frustrated with the government and intended to vote for the opposition.
"Our voters turned out to the polls," Vance stated, before identifying the real issue: "Many people who voted for Trump and Vance in 2024 voted for the Democrats in 2026."
As an example, he mentioned Florida, where, according to the data he cited, the composition of the electorate favored the Republicans by nine percentage points over the Democrats, just a few points below the level recorded in 2024.
For Vance, this data shows that the national defeat cannot be explained solely by an insufficient mobilization of conservative supporters.
The four reasons for Trump voters' discontent
Vance also revealed the conclusions of a trusted pollster who had previously predicted a 13-point Republican disadvantage in the national party vote intention ahead of the election day.
According to the explanation, that specialist asked former Trump voters what would need to change for them to return to the Republican Party.
The four main responses were:
- Put an end to the war.
- Focus on the cost of living and inflation.
- Prioritize the America First policy.
- Change the relationship between the United States and Israel.
"Our voters went to the polls. And these four reasons explain why many of them voted for the Democrats," the vice president insisted, attributing that conclusion to the pollster.
Vance admitted that the Republican economic message had also not been sufficiently convincing during the final stretch of the campaign.
He also defended commentator Rachel Campos-Duffy, who had been criticized for calling for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. According to the vice president, the electoral results demonstrated that his political advice was correct.
An explanation that partially aligns with Trump's
Vance's statements come after President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran influenced the Democratic victory.
In interviews with Fox News and The Wall Street Journal, Trump admitted that the conflict was one of the factors behind the electoral setback, although he defended his decision to launch the military offensive.
"I did the right thing. I would do it again," the leader assured, according to statements collected by Reuters.
Vance, for his part, was more categorical in identifying the war as the main reason for the defeat.
"If you want to argue that it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was a price worth paying, go ahead," he wrote, referring to the political cost of the conflict and the length of Senate terms.
"But everyone knows why we lost. And any sincere conversation about where we're headed must start from there," he added.
Vance rejects that a immigration amnesty is the Republican response
The vice president also anticipated an intense debate within the Republican Party regarding the causes of the defeat and the direction the organization should take.
In particular, he rejected the idea that an amnesty for undocumented immigrants would be the solution to regain electoral support.
Although he expressed willingness to discuss changes in the implementation of immigration laws, such as focusing more efforts on companies that hire unauthorized workers, he explicitly ruled out an amnesty.
"Anyone promoting an amnesty is lying to you," he stated.
Vance concluded his message by acknowledging the anger of Republican supporters who had warned about the political consequences of the war and encouraging them to support candidates who share their priorities.
"To those who are upset and want to say 'I told you so': you are right, they told us," he acknowledged, before asking that this discontent turn into support for new Republican candidates.
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