The first cold front of the 2026-2027 winter season could reach the western part of Cuba next Tuesday in the afternoon or the early hours of the night, according to the latest weather projections.
The specialist Laura Pit, from the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba (INSMET), explained this Wednesday in a publication shared on Facebook that models suggest the formation of a low-pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico next Monday.
From that system, a cold front could develop, moving eastward over the waters of the Gulf until it reaches Cuban territory.
"If this configuration remains, the first cold front of the winter season 2026-2027 is expected to arrive in the western part of the country during the afternoon or the early hours of the night on the 10th," the meteorologist indicated.
Its arrival would cause a gradual change in weather conditions, first in the western region and later in the central and eastern areas, as the system moves eastward.
The forecast is still preliminary and depends on the development of the low-pressure area expected for the Gulf of Mexico.
At the moment, INSMET has not specified how much the temperatures might drop nor has it announced any rainfall or wind values associated with this potential cold front.
The institution announced that it will continue to provide updates on the evolution of the system in its upcoming releases.
In its weather outlook report issued at 9:00 a.m. this Wednesday, the Forecast Center indicated that Cuba remained under the peripheral influence of migratory high-pressure systems, with light variable winds.
Over the past 24 hours, showers, rain, and thunderstorms had been recorded in the central and eastern regions, while precipitation was isolated in the west.
These conditions were associated with a trough in the mid to upper atmosphere over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, which favored an increase in humidity and, combined with daytime warming, generated atmospheric instability.
Satellite images showed partially cloudy skies this Wednesday from Matanzas to Guantanamo, with some isolated rain in areas along the northern coastline.
INSMET also indicated that no tropical cyclone development was expected in the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico over the next 12 to 24 hours.
The potential arrival of the first cold front coincides with the outlook for an atypical winter season in Cuba, featuring an increased frequency of cold fronts, significant rainfall, and possible notable drops in temperatures.
That scenario was presented in late October during the XVI National Forum on Climate Perspectives, based on analyses by specialists from the Institute of Meteorology.
Experts pointed out that the influence of the El Niño phenomenon and the alterations of the polar vortex could facilitate the arrival of frontal systems and cold air masses to the Caribbean during the period between November 2026 and April 2027.
The projections also indicate above-average rainfall in western Cuba between November and January, while the most significant temperature drops could be recorded starting in December and during the early months of 2027.
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