The regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo excluded Cuba and Venezuela from authorizations for the entry of foreign troops, ships, and military aircraft into Nicaragua for the first time since 2020 during the first half of 2027, according to presidential decree 13-2026 analyzed by Confidencial, the independent Nicaraguan outlet in exile.
The decree, published on October 29 in La Gaceta de Nicaragua, maintains permits for Russia, China, the United States, Mexico, and four Central American countries—Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic—but does not mention Havana or Caracas among the states authorized to send troops.
The measure not only suspends the arrival of Cuban and Venezuelan military personnel to Nicaragua but also the travels of Nicaraguan troops to both countries, exchanges that had been taking place semiannually since 2020.
The decree provides no explanation for the exclusion of the two historical allies of Ortega's regime.
A security specialist consulted by Confidencial under the condition of anonymity attributed the change to the "special internal conditions" of both countries. "It's not a voluntary matter for the governments of either Cuba or Venezuela. What happens is that both countries have special internal conditions. Cuba is essentially economically finished," the analyst stated.
Regarding Venezuela, the expert dismissed the possibility of a formal break: "It's not that there is a break; rather, there must be internal elements in Venezuela that are preventing troops from being sent to Nicaragua." He linked the withdrawal of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces to the political scenario that emerged after the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026.
According to the count of presidential decrees published between 2020 and 2026, Cuba sent 700 military personnel to Nicaragua during that period, at a rate of 50 troops per semester for tasks described as humanitarian. Venezuela, on the other hand, dispatched at least 2,190 military personnel in the same timeframe.
The analyst also warned that the Cuban regime may need to concentrate its security forces in anticipation of possible internal scenarios. "If Cuba continues like this, the population could explode at any moment. They are calling for as many military forces and Interior Ministry forces as possible because they are anticipating scenarios of widespread unrest or direct intervention by the United States," he stated.
While Havana and Caracas are sidelined, Russia solidifies its position as Managua's most significant military partner. Between 2020 and the first half of 2027, decrees have authorized at least 2,280 Russian military personnel, and decree 13-2026 maintains the contingent of 180 troops for the first six months of the upcoming year.
The specialist specified that Russian troops are training the Nicaraguan Special Operations Command at the Xiloá base, an activity that goes beyond the humanitarian cooperation described in official documents.
The military exclusion adds to the elimination of visa-free travel for Cubans that the Ortega regime implemented in February 2026, when it began requiring a consulted visa after years of allowing unrestricted entry.
The distancing from Nicaragua is not the only sign of isolation for the Cuban regime among its regional partners. On November 3, Belize announced the end of the state medical cooperation agreement with Cuba that had been in effect since 1990, although it offered individual contracts to the approximately 92 Cuban health professionals from the mission.
None of the governments involved have issued an official statement regarding the exclusion of Cuba and Venezuela from decree 13-2026, thus solidifying the pattern of distancing without either party formally declaring a break.
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