The National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) of Cuba revealed that in 2025 the country recorded 733 people in potentially dependent ages for every thousand inhabitants of working age, a figure that reflects the increasing pressure of accelerated aging on the active population and on the sustainability of the social security system.
The indicator, known as the demographic dependency ratio (DDR), measures the proportion of individuals under 15 and over 60 years old compared to the age group of 15 to 59 years.
His rise is steady: it went from 681 in 2023 to 710 in 2024 and to 733 in 2015, in a context where Cuba is the most aged country in Latin America and the Caribbean, with 26.7% of its population aged 60 years or older.
The gaps between regions are significant. Villa Clara leads the provincial RDD with 792, consistent with being the oldest province in the country, where 30.2% of its inhabitants are over 60 years old.
On the opposite end, Artemisa recorded the lowest value among the provinces, with 689.
At the municipal level, the differences are even more pronounced: Plaza de la Revolución in Havana reached an RDD of 943, the highest in the country, while Antillas in Holguín recorded the lowest at 478.
Juan Carlos Alfonso, deputy chief of the ONEI, warned in October that public planning has not fully grasped the extent of the demographic change.
"We continue discussing plans and programs as if Cuba had not lost one and a half million inhabitants in the last four or five years, and nearly 27 percent of the population we have is aged 60 or older," he pointed out in an interview with Prensa Latina.
Alfonso emphasized that "the problem does not lie in the size of the population, but in its structure and the ability to sustain it."
Behind these numbers converge three interrelated factors: a fertility rate of just 1.29 children per woman by 2025, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1; a negative natural balance of over 66,000 people, with approximately 68,000 births compared to more than 134,000 deaths; and massive emigration, which in 2025 resulted in a negative balance of 245,264 people. Since 2020, the official population of the island has decreased by more than 1.6 million residents.
ONEI published this data in the context of the International Day of Caregivers, celebrated on November 5, to also highlight the gender dimension of the issue. Women represent approximately 54% of people over 60 years old and disproportionately undertake unpaid caregiving work, dedicating up to 14% more weekly time to these tasks than men.
The regime approved Decree 109/2024 to establish the National System for Comprehensive Life Care, with an implementation plan for 2026-2030.
However, the available infrastructure has contracted: the number of Senior Centers dropped from 375 centers in 2021 to 307 in 2026, a reduction of 68 facilities. Meanwhile, over 1.7 million retirees receive pensions that, at the informal exchange rate, amount to barely between seven and eight dollars a month.
The ONEI projects that by 2040, 36% of the Cuban population will be 60 years or older, which indicates an even greater pressure on a workforce that continues to decline due to mass emigration and low birth rates.
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