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Cuba recorded only 68,051 births in 2025, the lowest figure since modern statistical records began in the country, compared to 134,354 deaths, resulting in a negative population balance of over 66,000 people in a single year, according to data from the Center for Demographic Studies (CEDEM) at the University of Havana released by the official Granma on the occasion of World Population Day.
The decline in birth rates is steady and accelerating: in 2021, around 99,000 Cubans were born; in 2022, about 95,000; in 2024 the number dropped to 71,358, and in 2025 it plummeted to 68,051, a historic low that, according to the demographic report, is even lower than the estimates from 1899.
The fertility rate stands at 1.29 children per woman, well below the generational replacement level of 2.1, making Cuba one of the countries with the lowest birth rates in the Western Hemisphere.
This natural decline is compounded by migratory exodus. In 2024, the external migratory balance was -251,221 people, equivalent to 25.4 per 1,000 inhabitants, according to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI).
Since 2021, more than a million Cubans have left the country, and the official population, which surpassed 11 million in 2020, stood at just 9,436,440 inhabitants at the beginning of 2026.
Independent estimates are even more alarming. The Cuban demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos calculates that the actual population of Cuba is around 8 million people, a figure that contrasts with official data and reflects the statistical opacity of the regime, which postponed the scheduled census for 2025 citing the economic crisis.
The demographic blow is particularly hard on the young. In a discussion held in Havana for World Population Day, CEDEM researcher Arelis Rosalen Mora Pérez warned that "by the end of 2024, 50% of the people who moved out of the country were young people and children under 35."
The group of zero to four years is the least represented in the population pyramid, while the largest group is that of 30 to 34 years.
Cuba is, furthermore, the oldest country in Latin America: 25.7% of its population is over 60 years old, a proportion that will continue to grow as births keep declining and young people emigrate.
The deputy director of CEDEM, Matilde Molina Cintra, also pointed out adolescent fertility as a structural problem: in 2024, the rate was 47.1 births for every 1,000 adolescents, and although it decreased in absolute terms, its relative weight within the country's total fertility increased.
"Pregnancy forces the teenager to break away from what should normally be enjoyed at this age; it represents a loss of social, educational, and health opportunities," she stated.
The director of CEDEM, Antonio Aja Díaz, called for policies that ensure "a migration policy where the right is not only to migrate, but the right not to have to do so," a demand that points directly to the regime's inability to provide dignified living conditions that keep its population.
The UN projects that Cuba may decrease to 5.6 million inhabitants by 2100 if the current trend is not reversed, which would amount to almost half of the population that the country currently has.
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