The electoral contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has captured the attention of American voters and global public opinion, emerging as one of the most hard-fought of the century.
While polls show a technical tie and a volatile electoral landscape, the competition between both candidates has been described as the closest in the last 60 years, similar to the historic election of 1960, which pitted John F. Kennedy against Richard Nixon.
According to a recent CNN survey, Harris leads with 48% support, compared to Trump's 47%. This narrow margin suggests that, although Harris has managed to gain ground due to her charisma and communication skills, Trump maintains an unwavering base that supports him because of his previous experience in the White House, especially on economic issues.
Despite criticism regarding his temperament and lack of empathy, Trump is still viewed as the most reliable candidate to handle the economy, immigration, and foreign policy.
Harris gains strength among young voters and minorities.
Harris has consolidated her support base among young voters and minorities. The poll highlights that the vice president has strong backing among voters under 30, Black voters, and Latinos.
This support is vital in key states, especially in those that were decisive for Joe Biden's victory in 2020.
Despite this, Trump continues to lead among white voters, particularly among men without a college education, a crucial demographic in battleground states.
The contest remains particularly close among independent voters, a group that could tip the scale.
Harris surpasses Trump among independent women, while the former president has a slight advantage among the men in this group. This gender gap is also reflected among white voters, where Trump has majority support among men, while Harris is gaining ground among women.
A battle in the electoral college
Although Harris seems to have a slight advantage in the popular vote, the real battle takes place in the electoral college. Analysis indicates that Trump may be better positioned in the electoral college than in the popular vote due to the composition of his support base in key states like Arizona and Georgia.
According to CNN's analysis, Harris has 225 electoral votes compared to Trump's 219, with seven states and one electoral district in dispute.
Harris is slightly leading in northern states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump is better positioned in Arizona and Georgia. The race in states like Nevada and North Carolina remains very close, and any change in the polls could drastically alter the outcome.
In a tight scenario, a victory for Harris in Nebraska's 2nd District could give her the 270 electoral votes needed to win, although a change in the method of assigning votes in Nebraska could further complicate things for her.
Inflation and economy: the central issues
The economy and inflation dominate the voters' agenda, with 41% of likely voters citing the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election.
Trump continues to be perceived as the strongest candidate on these issues, despite his policies being seen as more extreme than those of Harris.
The vice president, for her part, is preferred on issues of reproductive rights and protection of democracy, which brings her closer to voters concerned about these matters.
Perspectives and challenges
Both candidates face significant challenges in this historical contest. Harris has managed to improve her public image, but she must overcome the negative perception regarding Biden's administration, while Trump continues to deal with criticism about his extremism and divisive leadership.
With a majority of voters concerned about political violence and a deeply polarized electorate, the 2024 election is shaping up to be a showdown that could redefine American politics and the global landscape at a particularly tumultuous and decisive moment for the future of Western democracies, threatened by the rise of authoritarian leadership and the militaristic escalation of Russia and its satellites.
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