Cuba closed the year 2024 with a effective population of less than 10 million inhabitants and the lowest number of births recorded in over six decades, confirmed the deputy head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga.
During a press conference, the official acknowledged the worsening demographic crisis that the country has been facing for decades, reported Canal Caribe.
"We are estimating, please, estimating, that this year the number of births will be even lower than that figure of 71,000," said Alfonso Fraga, referring to the 71,358 recorded births in 2023, the lowest number in the last 65 years.
According to data from the ONEI, between 2020 and 2024, Cuba has lost over 1.4 million residents, with a natural decrease of 56,740 people just in the last year.
The official explained that the birthrate crisis is not a recent phenomenon nor is it exclusively linked to the current economic situation in the country. "Since 1978, Cuba has been below replacement level. This means that a woman in Cuba was having fewer than two children, or a couple was having fewer than two children to replace themselves in their reproductive function," he pointed out.
The phenomenon of the sustained decline in birth rates has been accompanied by a high level of population aging. Currently, 25.7% of the Cuban population is 60 years old or older, a percentage comparable to that of developed countries, but without the institutional or economic support that characterizes those contexts.
Alfonso Fraga warned that this trend will continue. “The population is decreasing, meaning we are fewer inhabitants year after year”.
This process is combined with an external migratory balance of -251,221 people in 2024, a figure that remains high despite being slightly lower than in 2022 and 2023.
Despite the alarming figures, the official discourse insists that this data should serve as input for "decision-making at the local and national levels with the aim of benefiting what is considered the greatest resource of a society: its people", as highlighted by the official journalist Gisela García Rivero.
However, in a country where mass migration, low birth rates, an economic crisis, and a lack of prospects for young people intertwine, that "greater wealth" seems to diminish with each passing year.
Frequently Asked Questions about Population Decline in Cuba
Why is the population in Cuba declining?
The population in Cuba is declining mainly due to a rising number of deaths exceeding the number of births since 2019. Additionally, the country is experiencing a high rate of emigration, especially among young working-age individuals, which further exacerbates the demographic issue.
What are the consequences of the aging population in Cuba?
The aging of the population in Cuba implies an increase in the economic dependency of older adults. This creates pressure on the country's social and economic services, as there are fewer people of working age to support the growing elderly population. Additionally, it affects the sustainability of the pension system and could lead to an economic and social collapse if appropriate measures are not taken.
What is the impact of population decline on the Cuban economy?
Population decline negatively impacts the Cuban economy by reducing the available workforce. This limits economic growth and increases the burden on the state to provide services and subsidies to an aging population. The decrease in the young population also means fewer entrepreneurs and less innovation, which can stall the country's economic development.
What measures is the Cuban government taking to address the population decline?
Until now, the Cuban government has not implemented clear and effective policies to mitigate population decline. While they claim to be monitoring demographic indicators and studying possible policies, no concrete solutions have been presented to address aging and mass emigration. The government has also postponed conducting a population census, which complicates proper planning.
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