The National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC) raised the alert level for tropical storm Isaias on Wednesday by issuing hurricane watches, storm surge warnings, and tropical storm warnings for areas along the northern Gulf coast, including parts of Florida.
The new alerts appear in the Public Advisory number 4 from the NHC, issued at 10:00 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, October 7.
The measure represents an escalation compared to the previous bulletin, when the agency anticipated that it would likely be necessary to activate monitoring later due to the strengthening of Isaías.
Hurricane watch up to Florida
The NHC issued a hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the specified area, usually within 48 hours.
There is also an active storm surge watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida.
This type of alert indicates that there is a possibility of a potentially deadly flooding due to rising sea levels and the encroachment of water inland over the next 48 hours.
Moreover, the NHC has activated a tropical storm watch from the line between Jefferson and Plaquemines parishes in Louisiana to the west of Bay St. Louis, as well as from east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River in Florida.
The agency warned that new advisories or warnings may be necessary in other areas along the northern Gulf coast this Wednesday.
Seven-foot swells
The new bulletin warns of a dangerous storm surge that could reach between 5 and 7 feet above ground level, approximately between 1.5 and 2.1 meters, from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, if the peak of the surge coincides with high tide.
The same range of 5 to 7 feet is expected in Mobile Bay.
From the mouth of the Mississippi to Ocean Springs, between 3 and 5 feet of storm surge could be recorded, as well as between Indian Pass and the Aucilla River in Florida.
From Aucilla River to Yankeetown, also in Florida, the NHC anticipates between 2 and 4 feet.
The greatest floods could occur near and east of the location where Isaías makes landfall, accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Isaías continues to strengthen
At 10:00 a.m. CDT, Isaías had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), five miles per hour more than in the previous advisory.
Its central pressure had dropped to 1,000 millibars, according to data obtained by a hurricane hunter aircraft from the U.S. Air Force Reserve.
The center of the system was located about 420 kilometers west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and approximately 870 kilometers south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Isaías was moving east-northeast at about 8 mph (13 km/h).
The NHC maintains the forecast of rapid strengthening over the next day or two, expecting Isaías to become a hurricane on Thursday.
According to the projected path, the system will move north of the Yucatán Peninsula and will approach the northern Gulf Coast of the United States on Friday.
Hurricane conditions could begin on Friday
The hurricane conditions could begin in the area under watch late Friday, while tropical storm-force winds could start around noon.
Between Friday and the weekend, Isaías could bring between 3 and 6 inches of rain, or 75 to 150 millimeters, from the southeastern tip of Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with localized accumulations of up to 10 inches (254 mm).
The NHC warns that flash flooding and urban flooding could occur, in addition to isolated river flooding.
CiberCuba reported shortly before that NOAA warned of an increased risk of flooding and possible tornadoes associated with Isaias in Florida and the northern Gulf coast.
Hours earlier, the NHC had confirmed the formation of tropical storm Isaías in the Gulf of Mexico, while still predicting that watches would likely be necessary later on.
The next intermediate bulletin from the NHC is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. CDT, and the next full advisory will be at 4:00 p.m. CDT.
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