The threat of tropical storm Isaiah goes beyond strong winds and storm surge: new official forecasts from the United States warn of a scenario of torrential rains, flash floods, and possible tornadoes as the system approaches Florida and the northern Gulf coast.
The American meteorologist Jim Cantore, one of the most recognized faces of The Weather Channel in hurricane coverage, drew attention this Wednesday to these additional dangers in a post on X accompanied by official maps from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), agencies of the National Weather Service of the United States.
Cantore warned that, in addition to the direct impacts of the hurricane, there is a potential for tornadoes and inland flooding on Friday and Saturday, with the possibility that some risks may continue into Sunday depending on the evolution of Isaías.
Moderate risk of flooding in western Florida
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed the far southern region of Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida under a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for Friday, the second highest level on its four-category scale.
The official map designates that area in red, which represents at least a 40% probability that rainfall will exceed, within a 25-mile radius of a point, the levels used as a reference for flash flooding.
A wide region surrounding it, which includes parts of Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida, also appears to be under light risk, corresponding to a probability of at least 15% on that same metric.
The WPC explains that Isaiah, likely transformed into a hurricane by then, will approach the Gulf coast, make landfall, and move over the southeastern United States during Friday and Friday night.
The organization warns that the distribution of rainfall could be especially concentrated to the east of the cyclone's center track, while tropical moisture extends into inland areas.
Florida is already facing the risk of rain ahead of Isaías' arrival
Before even the arrival of the system's core, the WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across much of Florida for Thursday.
According to the forecast, the combination of a tropical air mass, a stationary front, and slow-moving storms may produce localized episodes of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
By Thursday night, the initial outer bands associated with Isaías could begin to reach the area of Apalachicola and northwest Florida, gradually increasing the risk.
The risk of tornadoes increases with the arrival of the cyclone
The maps shared by Cantore also include the forecast from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), which is monitoring an increased risk of severe weather associated with Isaías.
The meteorological agency anticipates that between the night of Friday and the morning of Saturday, there is a possibility of storms capable of producing tornadoes near the north-central Gulf coast.
For Saturday, the multi-day forecast indicates an area with a 15% risk of severe weather over parts of southern Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida. This figure should not be directly interpreted as a 15% probability of a tornado; the SPC product encompasses various forms of severe weather.
However, the weather discussion from the agency specifically points to the potential for some supercells capable of producing tornadoes, supported by the strong wind shear to the east of the cyclone's center.
The exact location of that risk may still change if the expected path of Isaías is altered.
Isaías will quickly strengthen
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported this Wednesday that Isaías had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h), but anticipated a rapid strengthening over the next two days.
The agency forecasts that the system will become a hurricane on Thursday as it moves through the waters of the Gulf and heads toward the U.S. coast.
CiberCuba previously reported that Isaiah became a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico this Wednesday and could be the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season.
The governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, had already declared a state of emergency in 25 counties, primarily in the north and northwest regions of the state, due to the threat of the system.
A threat that doesn’t end when it makes landfall
The new forecasts indicate that the risk associated with Isaías could continue after the center crosses the coast.
On Saturday, heavy rains and the possibility of flooding are expected to move inland across the southeastern United States, potentially impacting parts of Alabama, Georgia, and neighboring states.
Cantore urged residents to make use of the available time to complete preparations and to follow the instructions of local authorities in case evacuation orders are issued.
The specific high-risk areas may change over the next few hours, so the NHC, WPC, and SPC recommend following official updates as Isaias strengthens and defines its trajectory toward the Gulf Coast.
Related videos:
Filed under: