The tropical storm Isaías formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico in recent hours, as confirmed by the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), issued at 4:00 a.m. Central Time, United States.
The system, which on Tuesday became Tropical Depression Nine, intensified rapidly and threatens to become a hurricane before making landfall on the northern Gulf coast, presumably on Friday.
The bulletin warns that "a rapid strengthening is expected in the next day or two, and Isaías is forecasted to become a hurricane on Thursday."
If Isaias reaches hurricane status, it will be the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, following eight named storms that failed to reach that threshold.
Current position and characteristics
At the time of the advisory, the center of Isaías was located at 22.0°N / 94.1°W, approximately 460 km west of Progreso, Mexico, and 935 km southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The maximum sustained winds reached 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts, and the minimum central pressure was 1,004 mb.
The system was moving to the east-northeast at 8 mph (13 km/h), with tropical storm-force winds extending up to 75 km from the center.
Trajectory: from Yucatán to the Northern Gulf
The NHC projects that Isaías will maintain its east-northeast course throughout the day, before turning northeast and north on Thursday and Friday.
Following that trajectory, the system would move north of the Yucatán Peninsula on Thursday and approach the northern coast of the Gulf of the U.S. on Friday.
The NHC was explicit about the risk to the U.S. coast: “There is an increasing risk of dangerous winds and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf coast. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that their hurricane plan is in place.”
The agency also anticipated that Hurricane Watches "will likely be needed for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later today."
Rain, flooding, and dangerous waves
For the Yucatán Peninsula, accumulations of between two and four inches (50-100 mm) are expected until Thursday, with isolated maximums in Campeche and western Yucatán, as well as gusty winds and dangerous wave conditions on the western and northern coasts.
For the north coast of the Gulf of the U.S., between Friday and the weekend, the NHC forecasts between three and six inches of rain (75-150 mm), with isolated maximums of up to 10 inches (254 mm) from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
"Sudden and urban flooding, along with isolated river floods, will be possible," warns the bulletin.
The rains could extend into the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.
Florida in emergency; Cuba, out of danger
Before the system was named, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 25 counties in the northern and northwestern parts of the state through Executive Order 26-202, which includes areas such as Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Bay, and Leon, among others.
The Institute of Meteorology of Cuba (INSMET) dismissed any threat to the island: "This system poses no danger to Cuba", although it advised staying informed through official channels.
A season that broke records for calm
Isaías arrives in an unusual context: the 2026 Atlantic season broke the historical record for the longest period without a hurricane in the satellite era, surpassing records from 2002 and 2013.
September 2026 ended without a single hurricane, something that had only occurred three times since 1950.
The next full advisory from the NHC was scheduled for 10:00 AM CDT this Wednesday.
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