Meteorologists from Colorado State University (CSU) in the United States increased their initial hurricane forecast for the current cyclonic season in the Atlantic, and anticipated this Tuesday 25 named storms and 12 hurricanes, of which six would be of great intensity.
One day after Beryl struck the state of Texas as a Category 1 hurricane early Monday morning, leaving behind destruction and death, the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the university added two named storms and a major hurricane to its forecasts made at the beginning of June.
"We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to predict an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic in 2024," warned CSU, which last month had predicted a total of 23 named storms, 11 of which could become hurricanes, and five of these could reach categories 3, 4, or even 5, with winds exceeding 111 mph (miles per hour)."
"We anticipate a probability well above average of high-intensity hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coast and in the Caribbean," experts said on Tuesday.
This pioneering group in seasonal hurricane prediction updated its forecast based on the increase in sea surface temperatures averaged in the main hurricane development region of the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, which "remain near record warm levels".
These temperatures "provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for the formation and intensification of hurricanes," the university stated on its website.
The CSU experts emphasized that "Beryl, a deep tropical category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season."
Beryl set records by becoming the first hurricane, both in category 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, to form so early in the 2024 hurricane season, which began on June 1 and ends on November 30.
The University of Colorado is not the first organization to predict an above-average hurricane season.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted in May a more active season than usual, in which between 17 and 25 named storms would form, and up to 13 hurricanes, of which up to seven could be of great intensity.
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