The informal currency exchange market in Cuba remains stable for the third consecutive day
At 10:00 a.m. this Tuesday the dollar remains priced at 370 CUP and the euro at 390 CUP, values reached in both cases last week.
Also unchanged is the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which remains valued at 260 CUP, according to the daily report from the independent media elTOQUE.
Exchange rate today 05/27/2025 - 10:56 a.m. in Cuba:
Tasa de cambio del dólar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 390 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 260 CUP.
How the OMFi predicts the informal foreign exchange market in Cuba
The Currency and Finance Observatory of Cuba (OMFi) from elTOQUE has developed a methodology that allows for the accurate anticipation of movements in the informal currency market on the island, particularly regarding the dollar.
A recent article published by the aforementioned independent media outlet specified that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in its forecasts regarding the value of the dollar.
According to economist Pavel Vidal, the principal researcher of the project, "the forecasts are useful for a wide range of economic actors," from citizens who need to buy foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs who import products and need to protect their margins against market volatility.
The key to the model is the use of real-time data, gathered through artificial intelligence from social networks and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
The mentioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
Factors that hinder predictions
The analysis of OMFi shows that the exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors.
For example, the most significant errors occurred between May and June 2024, amidst the so-called "herd effect," and following government announcements that sharply altered expectations.
One of the most critical moments occurred in August and September 2023 when banking measures were announced, and in December 2024, following statements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero about a possible floating exchange rate.
In these cases, elTOQUE acknowledged that the forecasted and actual values diverged significantly.
Despite this, in 2025, accuracy has improved, with an average margin of error of only 1.8% in the first four months. The OMFi indicates that, although the exchange rate has remained within the expected minimum and maximum range in 43.5% of the months, when it has deviated, it has done so with an average difference of just 5.3%.
New OMFi Strategy: Weekly Predictions
The OMFi announced that it will begin providing weekly reports on the evolution of the informal market, aiming to enhance the response capacity to abrupt changes.
This new publishing strategy will not be free, and details about subscriptions will be announced soon.
"A greater frequency of publication will facilitate the early detection of upward or downward pressures on exchange rates," they concluded.
Equivalents of each euro and US dollar bill available to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates of this May 27:
USD 1 = 370 CUP.
USD 5 = 1850 CUP.
USD 10 = 3700 CUP.
USD 20 = 7400 CUP.
USD 50 = 18500 CUP.
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
EUR 1 = 390 CUP.
EUR 5 = 1950 CUP.
EUR 10 = 3900 CUP.
EUR 20 = 7800 CUP.
EUR 50 = 19,500 CUP.
EUR 100 = 39,000 CUP.
EUR 200 = 78,000 CUP.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Informal Currency Market in Cuba
What is the current exchange rate for the dollar, euro, and MLC in the Cuban informal market?
The current exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is 370 CUP per dollar, 390 CUP per euro, and 260 CUP per MLC. These values have remained stable for several consecutive days, according to the independent media outlet elTOQUE.
How does the OMFi predict movements in the informal currency market in Cuba?
The Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi) uses artificial intelligence and econometric models to predict movements in the informal currency market. This method has achieved 94% accuracy in its forecasts regarding the value of the dollar, which is useful for citizens and entrepreneurs who need to protect their margins against market volatility.
What factors affect the volatility of the informal currency market in Cuba?
The volatility of the informal currency market in Cuba is influenced by speculative and political factors. Events such as government announcements, banking measures, and market expectations have triggered sharp changes in exchange rates. Despite the improvement in the accuracy of predictions, these factors remain a challenge for the OMFi.
What is the forecast for the informal currency market in Cuba for the coming days?
The OMFi predicts that the exchange rate for the dollar could range between 357-368 CUP, and for the euro between 372-383 CUP. Although a possible stagnation is anticipated due to the increase in willingness to sell, dollarization remains a factor driving the demand for foreign currency.
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