After four days of calm in the informal currency market in Cuba, this Thursday the euro opens with a price surge, while the median of the dollar also threatens a potential increase in value, which could materialize, or not, in the coming hours.
At 7:00 a.m. this Thursday, the euro has experienced a jump of five pesos, now standing at 395 CUP, according to the daily report from the independent outlet elTOQUE, which tracks the fluctuations of currencies in Cuba.
The dollar, for its part, remains valued at 370 CUP, although the median buying and selling values over the past 24 hours puts the average selling price at 373 CUP, which could indicate that the U.S. currency may rise in price in the coming hours.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Also unchanged today is the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which remains valued at 260 CUP,
Exchange rate today, 05/29/2025 - 7:38 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate for the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 260 CUP.
Equivalences of each available banknote in euros and US dollars to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates for this May 29:
USD 1 = 370 CUP.
USD 5 = 1,850 CUP.
USD 10 = 3,700 CUP.
USD 20 = 7,400 CUP.
USD 50 = 18,500 CUP.
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
EUR 1 = 395 CUP.
5 EUR = 1,975 CUP.
10 EUR = 3,950 CUP.
20 EUR = 7,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 19,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 39,500 CUP.
200 EUR = 79,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 197,500 CUP.
This week it was reported that the Observatory of Coins and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that, according to their claims, allows for highly accurate predictions of the movements in the informal currency market on the island, especially regarding the dollar.
An article published by the aforementioned independent media specified that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in its forecasts regarding the value of the dollar.
According to economist Pavel Vidal, the principal researcher of the project, "forecasts are useful for a wide range of economic actors," from citizens who need to purchase foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs who import products and need to protect their margins against market volatility.
The key to the model lies in the use of real-time data, gathered through artificial intelligence from social networks and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
The aforementioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
Factors that hinder predictions
The analysis of OMFi shows that the exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors.
One of the most critical moments occurred in August and September 2023, when measures for banking inclusion were announced, and in December 2024, following Prime Minister Manuel Marrero's statements about a possible floating exchange rate.
There were also significant errors between May and June 2024, amid the so-called "herd effect," and following announcements from the Government that sharply altered expectations.
Despite this, in 2025 the accuracy has improved, with an average margin of error of only 1.8% in the first four months.
The OMFi indicates that, although the exchange rate has remained within the expected minimum and maximum range in 43.5% of the months, when it has deviated, it has done so with an average difference of just 5.3%.
Frequently asked questions about the black market for foreign currency in Cuba
What is the current price of the euro on the black market in Cuba?
The euro is currently trading at 395 CUP, according to the daily report from the independent media outlet elTOQUE on May 29, 2025. This value reflects a significant increase of five pesos compared to previous days.
What is the current situation of the dollar in the informal Cuban market?
The dollar continues to be valued at 370 CUP, although the median values for buying and selling have placed the sale at 373 CUP, indicating a possible rise in its price in the coming hours.
What methodology does the Observatory of Currencies and Finance in Cuba use to predict the value of the dollar?
The Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba uses econometric models and artificial intelligence to predict the value of the dollar in the informal market. This approach has achieved a 94% accuracy in its forecasts, utilizing real-time data collected from social media and digital platforms.
What factors affect the volatility of the foreign exchange market in Cuba?
The volatility of the informal Cuban market is highly sensitive to speculative and political factors. Events such as the measures regarding banking and statements about potential changes in currency exchange policy have caused significant fluctuations in exchange rates.
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