The dollar, the euro, and the freely convertible currency (MLC) maintain a streak of calm that has extended for the fourth consecutive day.
At 7:00 a.m. this Wednesday, the dollar remains valued at 370 CUP and the euro at 390 CUP, values reached in both cases last week.
Also unchanged is the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which remains valued at 260 CUP, according to the daily report from the independent media elTOQUE.
Exchange rate today 05/28/2025 - 7:49 a.m. in Cuba:
Dollar exchange rate USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 390 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 260 CUP.
How does the OMFi predict the informal foreign exchange market in Cuba?
This week it was revealed that the Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that -according to their claims- allows for highly accurate predictions of the movements in the informal currency market on the island, particularly concerning the dollar.
An article published by the aforementioned independent media specified that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved 94% accuracy in its forecasts regarding the value of the dollar.
According to economist Pavel Vidal, the lead researcher of the project, "forecasts are useful for a wide range of economic actors," from citizens who need to purchase foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs who import products and need to safeguard their margins against market volatility.
The key to the model is the use of real-time data, captured through artificial intelligence from social networks and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
The aforementioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
Factors that hinder predictions
The analysis of OMFi shows that the exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors.
One of the most critical moments occurred in August and September 2023, when banking measures were announced, and in December 2024, following statements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero regarding a possible floating exchange rate.
There were also significant errors between May and June 2024, amid the so-called "herd effect," and following announcements from the Government that sharply altered expectations.
Despite this, in 2025 the accuracy has improved, with an average margin of error of only 1.8% in the first four months.
The OMFi indicates that, although the exchange rate has remained within the expected minimum and maximum range in 43.5% of the months, when it has deviated, it has done so with an average difference of only 5.3%.
Equivalencies of each available euro and US dollar bill to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates on this May 28:
USD 1 = 370 CUP.
USD 5 = 1850 CUP.
USD 10 = 3700 CUP.
USD 20 = 7400 CUP.
USD 50 = 18,500 CUP.
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
EUR 1 = 390 CUP.
EUR 5 = 1950 CUP.
EUR 10 = 3900 CUP.
EUR 20 = 7800 CUP.
EUR 50 = 19,500 CUP.
EUR 100 = 39,000 CUP.
EUR 200 = 78,000 CUP.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Informal Currency Market in Cuba
What is the current exchange rate for the dollar, the euro, and the MLC in Cuba?
According to elTOQUE, the current exchange rate is 370 CUP per dollar, 390 CUP per euro, and 260 CUP per MLC. These values have remained stable for the fourth consecutive day, reflecting a calm in the informal Cuban market.
How does the OMFi predict the informal currency market in Cuba?
The Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi) uses artificial intelligence and econometric models to predict movements in the informal currency market with 94% accuracy. This approach is based on the analysis of real-time data gathered from social media and digital platforms where currencies such as the dollar and the euro are traded.
What factors affect the volatility of the foreign exchange market in Cuba?
The Cuban informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors. Changes in government policies, such as banking measures and announcements of floating exchange rates, have created critical moments in the past, significantly impacting exchange rates.
What is the impact of the exchange rate on the purchasing power of Cubans?
The exchange rate in the informal market determines the real purchasing power of Cubans in a context of scarcity and inflation. The depreciation of the Cuban peso against the dollar and the euro has triggered an inflationary spiral that particularly affects those who rely on income in national currency, increasing economic inequalities.
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