For the third consecutive day, the price of foreign currencies in the informal Cuban market remains unchanged.
However, an article published this Tuesday by elTOQUE anticipated that the currency market for the remainder of June is likely to become "more active and unstable" than in previous months.
However, for now the dollar remains priced at 375 CUP; the euro at 400 CUP and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) at 260 CUP.
Regarding the evolution of the Median Purchase and Sale Values of the three reference currencies, the euro reaches 405 CUP in sales and the dollar climbs to 376 CUP, changes that may or may not materialize in the coming hours.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate today 11/06/2025 - 9:30 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 375 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 400 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 260 CUP.
Foreign exchange market: Between the stability of May and the volatility of June
In its analysis, the mentioned independent media notes that during May, the informal currency market in Cuba experienced a relative calm.
The euro has solidified its position as the most profitable currency, increasing its purchasing power in CUP by 14.8% in three months, compared to 8.2% for the US dollar.
In contrast, the freely convertible currency (MLC) lost 7% of its value during the same period.
The dollar showed great stability, rising only 3 CUP (0.82%) over the month. This behavior also stabilized the MLC, which closed May at 270 CUP per unit, the same value as in April, thereby halting the sustained decline that had begun in March.
A warning sign was the price of the cryptocurrency USDT trading above 400 CUP during the last week of May, which often serves as a leading indicator of the future value of the dollar.
Projections for June: An upward pressure on currencies is anticipated
The Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi) anticipates a change in dynamics for June.
They warn that while May was characterized by an excess of supply, June could be dominated by an excess of demand, which would drive up the exchange rates of currencies.
According to the OMFi forecasting models, the likely values for the exchange rate in Cuba as of June 30, 2025, are as follows: for the US dollar (USD), a central value of 385 Cuban pesos is projected, with a maximum value of 408 and a minimum of 365.
Regarding the euro (EUR), a central value of 406 Cuban pesos is estimated, with a maximum of 421 and a minimum of 385.
Finally, for the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), the forecast indicates a central value of 274 Cuban pesos, reaching a maximum of 284 and a minimum of 260.
In all cases, the indicators show an upward trend compared to current values.
In a central scenario, the informal dollar would increase by about 15 CUP (4%). In a more extreme scenario, the rise of the dollar could be up to 38 CUP (10%).
For the euro, the increase would be between 3% and 7%.
These figures would bring both the dollar and the euro above the barrier of 400 CUP, a key psychological threshold.
According to the OMFi, “the informal currency market in June is likely to be more 'active and uncertain' than in previous months.”
A parallel market: Phone credit as a new currency
On the other hand, the increase in ETECSA's rates has led to a surge in the buying and selling of mobile phone credit on social media.
This activity, without an official standard and driven by the logic of supply and demand, utilizes multiple currencies: Cuban pesos (CUP), dollars (USD), euros (EUR), and MLC.
The innovation that has catalyzed the surge is the monthly recharge limit of 360 CUP per user.
Since balance transfers are not restricted, many are willing to pay more for them, which has established balance as a scarce and valuable commodity in the informal economy.
"The mechanism of the Cuban communications monopoly has created a parallel economy in which phone balance, transformed into a scarce and valuable commodity, circulates as if it were an alternative currency," state the OMFi.
Economic impact: Inflation, digital rent-seeking, and lack of reforms
According to the OMFi, the tariff increase will impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and raise operational costs, particularly in more digitalized businesses
"This rate hike by ETECSA will impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June and will represent a shock to the operational costs of businesses, especially those that are more digitized," they state.
Although it could have anti-inflationary effects in the long term—by reducing the circulation of pesos and generating fiscal revenue—the immediate effects harshly impact the purchasing power of families.
The article emphasizes that this strategy is not accompanied by structural economic reforms. Instead, it points to an increasing rent-seeking mentality.
"Instead of promoting productivity, the Government seeks to increase the extraction of rents through selective dollarization and the rise in public service prices," they conclude.
Equivalences of each available euro and US dollar bill to Cuban pesos (CUP)
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to exchange rates as of June 11:
1 USD = 375 CUP.
5 USD = 1,875 CUP.
10 USD = 3,750 CUP.
20 USD = 7,500 CUP.
50 USD = 18,750 CUP.
100 USD = 37,500 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
1 EUR = 400 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,000 CUP.
10 EUR = 4,000 CUP.
20 EUR = 8,000 CUP.
50 EUR = 20,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 40,000 CUP.
200 EUR = 80,000 CUP
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