At dawn this Thursday, two of the three reference currencies in the Cuban informal market have recorded changes: the price of the dollar has risen, while the value of the freely convertible currency (MLC) has decreased
The U.S. dollar rises to 373 CUP per dollar, three pesos more compared to the previous day, from the 370 it had mainly maintained since May 3rd.
On the other hand, this June 5th the price of the MLC drops from 265 to 260.
The controversial virtual currency used by the Cuban regime in its increasingly meager stores has been fluctuating between 260 and 265 CUP for several weeks. Although many believe its purpose is to vanish, for now, the MLC remains in play.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Regarding the euro, today it maintains its value at 395 CUP, a price it reached last week.
The informal market and ETECSA's price hike
So far, the informal foreign exchange market has barely reacted to the increasing social tension in Cuba due to ETECSA's recent tariff hike.
Despite the fact that the day after the controversial announcement, the average sale price of the dollar rose for a few hours to 372, the US currency quickly returned to 370 CUP.
However, such a trend toward stability could change.
The median of purchase and sale values for currencies today places the selling price of the euro at 400 CUP, very close to its all-time high from last year.
Regarding the dollar, the median points to a market value of 375 CUP.
Pavel Vidal, chief economist of the Cuba Money and Finance Observatory (OMFi), warned last week that the exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is "highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors."
However, the truth is that for now, the controversial announcement by ETECSA to impose restrictions on mobile top-ups in Cuban pesos and new dollarized services had not been reflected in the selling prices of foreign currencies documented by elTOQUE.
Exchange rate today 05/06/2025 - 7:51 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 373 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 260 CUP.
Equivalences of each available bill in euros and United States dollars to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), based on the exchange rates as of June 5th:
1 USD = 373 CUP.
5 USD = 1,865 CUP.
10 USD = 3,730 CUP.
20 USD = 7,460 CUP.
50 USD = 18,650 CUP.
100 USD = 37,300 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
1 EUR = 395 CUP.
5 EUR = 1,975 CUP.
10 EUR = 3,950 CUP.
20 EUR = 7,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 19,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 39,500 CUP.
200 EUR = 79,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 197,500 CUP.
Last week, it was revealed that the Currency and Finance Observatory of Cuba (OMFi) has developed a methodology that—according to their claims—allows for a highly accurate prediction of movements in the informal currency market on the island, particularly regarding the dollar.
An article published by the aforementioned independent media specified that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy rate in its forecasts regarding the value of the dollar.
According to Pavel Vidal, the lead researcher of the project, the key to the model is the use of real-time data, captured through artificial intelligence from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded. The aforementioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
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