Has the informal currency exchange market reacted to the growing social tension in Cuba due to ETECSA's so-called tariff hike?
The answer is no. Despite the fact that the day after the controversial announcement, the average sale of the dollar rose for a few hours to 372, the US currency quickly returned to 370 CUP, a price it has predominantly maintained for several weeks, which it also holds this Wednesday.
So far, the controversial announcement by ETECSA to impose restrictions on mobile recharges in Cuban pesos and new dollarized services has not significantly impacted the currency exchange market, according to the daily report published by the independent media elTOQUE.
At dawn on this June 4th, the euro and the Freely Convertible Currency remain unchanged: the European currency is valued at 395 CUP and the MLC at 265.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Pavel Vidal, chief economist of the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), warned last week that the exchange rate of the informal Cuban market is "highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors."
However, the truth is that for now, the controversial announcement by ETECSA to impose restrictions on mobile top-ups in Cuban pesos and new services priced in dollars has not yet been reflected in the selling prices of foreign currencies documented by elTOQUE.
However, the median exchange value of currencies in the last 24 hours shows an increase in the selling price of the dollar to 374.50, which could potentially result, or not, in a price increase in the trading of the U.S. currency on the island in the coming hours.
Exchange rate today 04/06/2025 - 9:27 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 265 CUP.
Equivalencies of each available bill in euros and US dollars to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates on this June 4th:
USD 1 = 370 CUP.
USD 5 = 1,850 CUP.
USD 10 = 3,700 CUP.
USD 20 = 7,400 CUP.
USD 50 = 18,500 CUP.
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
1 EUR = 395 CUP.
5 EUR = 1,975 CUP.
10 EUR = 3,950 CUP.
20 EUR = 7,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 19,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 39,500 CUP.
200 EUR = 79,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 197,500 CUP.
Last week, it was revealed that the Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that - according to their claims - allows for highly accurate predictions of the informal currency market movements on the island, especially regarding the dollar.
An article published by the aforementioned independent media indicated that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy in its predictions regarding the value of the dollar.
According to economist Pavel Vidal, the principal investigator of the project, "forecasts are useful for a wide range of economic actors," from citizens who need to buy foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs who import products and need to protect their margins against market volatility.
The key to the model is the use of real-time data, captured through artificial intelligence from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded. The mentioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
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