For the first time in at least five decades, the United States could experience a negative net migration in 2025, according to projections from CNN that were reiterated this Monday by the White House.
The phenomenon would mark a historic turning point in the country's immigration policy, now under the second administration of Donald Trump, which has focused on fulfilling its promise to stop the "migrant invasion" and deport illegal immigrants with criminal records.
“We are facing the real possibility of having net negative migration for the first time in at least 50 years,” said analyst Harry Enten. “That means more people would be leaving the country than entering, dropping from the 2.8 million recorded in 2024,” he explained during a segment aired on CNN.
The White House highlighted the report on the social media platform X, celebrating what they consider one of the greatest achievements in the first six months of Trump's new term.
“PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT,” celebrated the official message, while reiterating the necessity for Congress to pass laws that strengthen this tightening of immigration policies.
Dramatic drop in migrants, including Cubans
The latest statistics from the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) also show a significant decline in illegal border crossings, including those of Cubans.
In June 2025, only 140 Cuban citizens were detained while attempting to enter the U.S. irregularly, a decrease from the 150 detained in May, and far fewer than the 17,563 intercepted in June 2024. This marks the third month with the lowest number of entries of Cubans in the current fiscal year.
Since October 1, 2024 —the start of fiscal year 2025— a total of 32,563 Cubans have been intercepted by U.S. authorities at land borders, seaports, and airports.
A paradigm shift in migration
The current trend breaks the records set during the Biden administration when migration flows surged to unprecedented levels. Since his return to power in January, Trump has reinstated strict measures, including the deployment of military forces at the southern border, the elimination of various types of parole, and the reactivation of expedited deportation agreements with several countries.
If negative net migration is confirmed at the end of the year, the U.S. would experience an unprecedented shift in its recent history, amid growing debates about migrant rights, border security, and the sustainability of the current immigration system.
Frequently Asked Questions about Negative Net Migration in the U.S. in 2025
What does it mean for the U.S. to have a negative net migration in 2025?
The negative net migration indicates that more people are leaving the U.S. than entering. This would be a historic shift, as for at least the last 50 years, the U.S. has always had more entries than exits of migrants. This phenomenon is being observed under the second administration of Donald Trump, which has implemented stricter immigration policies.
How have Donald Trump's immigration policies affected Cubans?
Trump's policies have led to a drastic decrease in illegal crossings of Cubans into the U.S. In 2025, the numbers of Cubans attempting to enter the country have dropped significantly. This is due to the end of programs such as humanitarian parole and to new visa restrictions, which have closed off both irregular and legal routes for Cubans.
What implications does negative net migration have for U.S. immigration policy?
The negative net migration could reinforce the Trump administration's stance to further toughen immigration policies. The White House has celebrated this trend as an achievement of its policies, and it could motivate Congress to approve stricter laws to cement this shift in U.S. immigration policy.
How have migration flows changed compared to the Biden administration?
During the Biden administration, unprecedented levels of migration flow into the U.S. were recorded. However, under Trump's administration, measures have been reinstated that have drastically reduced these numbers, such as military deployment at the border and the use of expedited deportations.
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