After weeks of alarming figures that exceeded 2,000 megawatts (MW) in deficit, the report from the Electric Union (UNE) this Saturday indicates a significant decrease in the anticipated power outages for the day.
According to the official report, the highest recorded outage yesterday was 1,633 MW at 8:30 PM, coinciding with the peak demand, and for today it is estimated that the deficit during peak hours will be 1,450 MW, with a projected impact of 1,520 MW.
While the decline could be attributed to technical factors —such as the partial entry of unit 5 of the Nuevitas CTE with 60 MW— many Cubans suspect that this temporary relief is connected to the upcoming 99th anniversary of the birth of the dictator Fidel Castro and the intense propaganda agenda that the regime unfolds each year around this time.
It wouldn't be the first time that "strategic 'improvements' in the electrical service appear before political anniversaries or official visits.
In contrast to recent days, such as August 6, when the country experienced a deficit of over 2,000 MW, today the availability at 06:00 hours reached 2,090 MW against a demand of 2,624 MW, with only 580 MW affected at that time.
However, the structural causes of the energy crisis remain unchanged: two thermal units out of service, three under maintenance, 441 MW offline due to thermal limitations, and 59 inactive distributed generation plants due to lack of fuel.
The partial relief in the figures contrasts with the growing outrage towards the UNE, which recently sparked a wave of criticism by posting on social media a tribute to Castro amidst the blackouts.
Many users demanded that the state company "limit itself to reporting megawatts" and keep political propaganda out of a basic service that, under the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel, has become more unstable than ever.
The coincidence between the slight improvement in the supply and the approaching 99th anniversary of Castro's birth, scheduled for August 13, fuels speculation. While the regime prepares for a commemorative agenda that includes mass events and media coverage, Cubans wonder whether the electricity they are receiving today will last beyond the anniversary or if, as so many times before, the country will once again go dark after the propaganda ends.
A "relief" that remains darkness
The forecast of 1,520 MW of impact for today contrasts with the figures observed this summer: days exceeding 2,000 MW, such as on July 22 (2,054 MW), July 15 (2,020 MW) and August 6 (2,010 MW), or peaks close to those on August 5 (1,952 MW) and August 4 (1,862 MW).
Even on days with lower values, such as August 3 (1,675 MW) or August 2 (1,744 MW), the interruptions covered virtually the entire country.
In this context, today's figure, while objectively high and capable of leaving large areas of the island without electricity for hours, is seen by many Cubans as a relative improvement.
The normalization of blackouts has reached a point where even the slightest reduction brings a sense of relief, despite the fact that the deficit remains incompatible with a stable electrical service.
This phenomenon, a result of years of energy crisis and unfulfilled promises, reveals a dangerous social resignation. The population no longer expects an electricity system without outages; rather, they settle for having outages that are "less long" or "fewer days" without electricity.
The standard of service quality, which would be a cause for scandal in other countries, has deteriorated in Cuba to the point where a 1,500 MW deficit can be seen as good news.
The proximity of politically significant dates adds a speculative nuance: many suspect that this temporary decline is more about the regime's desire to project stability during official events than about real improvements in the SEN.
If the pattern of previous years repeats, the relief could fade as soon as the anniversary is over, returning the country to its usual darkness.
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