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The tropical storm Erin continues its movement westward over the central Atlantic, and in recent hours, the speed of its winds has increased, solidifying as a growing threat to the eastern Caribbean.
According to the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), issued at 5:00 AM AST (0900 UTC), Erin is showing signs of sustained strengthening and could reach hurricane status this Friday.
The maximum sustained winds of Erin have now reached 85 km/h (50 mph), with even stronger gusts.
Erin has also increased its translational speed, which is now 28 km/h (17 mph) heading west.
At 5:00 AM AST (0900 UTC), the system was located at a latitude of 16.3°N and a longitude of 48.2°W, which places it approximately 1,595 kilometers (990 miles) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Trajectory forecast
According to the official projection, Erin will continue moving west throughout the day, although a slight turn towards the west-northwest is expected starting tonight and during the weekend.
According to the latest forecast model, Erin is not expected to directly impact Cuba or the Florida peninsula, although both areas should continue to closely monitor any changes in the system's trajectory or intensity.
In this trajectory pattern, the center of the storm would pass near or just north of the Northern Leeward Islands, which could mean significant impacts for those islands, as well as for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Although there are no current alerts or coastal advisories in effect, the NHC urges authorities and residents in the areas closest to its path to monitor the development of the phenomenon and be prepared for potential changes in weather conditions.
Probable intensification: Erin could reach hurricane strength in less than 48 hours
The storm has a minimum estimated central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches), which is a clear indicator of its increasing organization.
The forecast anticipates a gradual strengthening in the next 24 to 48 hours, which could turn Erin into a category 1 hurricane by Friday or Saturday, depending on factors such as sea temperature and wind shear.
Currently, tropical storm-force winds extend up to 95 kilometers (60 miles) from its center, covering a wide area of the ocean and creating potentially adverse conditions for the eastern Caribbean islands.
Anticipated dangers on land: waves, rip currents, and marine currents
Although Erin is still far from land, the swells generated by the system will begin to be felt over the weekend along the northern coasts of the Leeward Islands, as well as in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
The NHC warns that these swells could lead to elevated surf, dangerous rip currents, and adverse marine conditions for small vessels and recreational activities. It is recommended to consult local weather service reports and avoid entering the sea during this period.
In addition, as it intensifies into a hurricane and approaches populated areas, the system could produce heavy rains, urban flooding, landslides in mountainous regions, and wind gusts strong enough to damage vulnerable infrastructure.
As Erin moves toward the eastern Caribbean, its evolution into a hurricane becomes a likely scenario. Weather conditions could change quickly in the coming hours, so local authorities and communities must activate their preparation and communication protocols.
The climatic history of the Caribbean has shown that even moderately intense phenomena can have devastating effects if their impact is underestimated or if action is not taken in time. The message is clear: follow official reports, stay informed, and be prepared.
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