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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirmed early this morning that Tropical Storm Melissa continues to intensify rapidly over the central Caribbean Sea, already showing signs of developing a distinct eye.
It has sustained winds of 110 km/h and a central pressure of 986 mb. It is slowly moving northwest at 6 km/h.
According to the report issued at 5:00 a.m. (Miami time), Melissa is slowly moving northwest and could reach Category 4 or even 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale before Monday, with winds exceeding 250 km/h.
"The rapid intensification models show a high probability that Melissa will become a major hurricane in the next 48 hours," noted the NHC, which warns that the system could maintain much of its strength as it approaches eastern Cuba.
Increasing risk for Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola
The forecasts from the NHC indicate that Melissa will hit Jamaica at the beginning of next week as a powerful hurricane, causing catastrophic flooding and landslides.
Subsequently, the cyclone would move over eastern Cuba between Wednesday and Thursday, possibly between the provinces of Guantánamo and Holguín, with a risk of storm surges, destructive winds, and severe flooding.
"In eastern Cuba, the risk of flash floods and landslides is significantly increasing," warned the organization based in Miami.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also under threat from heavy rain and strong winds, especially in the southern regions.
Projected trajectory
The latest forecast cone from the NHC places the center of Melissa:
- Monday, October 27: to the south of Jamaica, as a category 4 hurricane.
- Wednesday the 29th: making landfall in eastern Cuba as a powerful hurricane.
- Thursday 30: heading towards the southeast of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, with some loss of strength already.
A historic hurricane is forming
If the forecasts hold true, Melissa could become the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to impact Cuba in 2025, and one of the most powerful recorded in the region in recent years.
The NHC recommends that the Cuban authorities and the population in the east remain vigilant and begin preparations today, given the possibility of a direct impact by mid next week.
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