The meteorologist José Rubiera warned that the tropical storm Melissa is "about to become a hurricane" and Jamaica will face a severe blow from catastrophic winds and rains for several days, as the potential danger for Cuba increases in the first half of next week.
On his YouTube channel, the expert highlighted a high probability—estimated at around 70%—that the system will cross Cuba around Wednesday, although he emphasized that the exact trajectory cannot be determined yet.
Melissa could become a hurricane "tomorrow night" and gain strength rapidly as wind shear decreases between Friday and Saturday, he said.
Intense rains and flooding for several days are expected, along with very strong winds due to the proximity of the center and the slow movement of the system.
As a trough of low pressure captures the cyclone and accelerates it toward the northwest, it will amplify in size, with a range of trajectories that includes a crossing over the west/central part of the island around Wednesday.
Rubiera reported very heavy rains that have already occurred in the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti in recent days —with estimated accumulations of ≥100 mm and flooding—, and warned that the core of precipitation will move towards Jamaica, where the persistence of the storm will increase the risks of flash floods, river overflow, and landslides.
The specialist explained that Melissa maintains disorganization and reforms in the center, but the environment will improve for organization and strengthening as it approaches Jamaica.
Later, a new segment of upper-level circulation could "capture" the hurricane and swiftly carry it toward the Atlantic, during which the system will increase in size (with a larger area of winds and rain).
For that reason, a forecast line should not be taken literally, as the range of solutions includes scenarios further west or east of the west/central region of Cuba.
Although the exact crossing point is not defined, Rubiera called for early preparation across a wide area—from the center to the west—due to the possible acceleration of Melissa and its larger size, which would increase the likelihood of strong winds, intense and prolonged rains, flooding, and rough seas along the southern coast.
He emphasized that, if the system maintains the anticipated intensification before being captured by the trough, it could cross Cuba as a hurricane.
Rubiera urged not to underestimate the rain—the main cause of casualties during cyclones—and to closely monitor official reports, being prepared for protective measures if the forecast solidifies over Cuba.
Announced special update programs for tomorrow and Saturday in order to support the evolution of the event.
The National General Staff of the Civil Defense of Cuba issued this Friday the Informative Note No. 1 regarding the tropical storm Melissa, which continues to strengthen in the western Caribbean and could become a category 3 hurricane in the coming days before impacting the island.
The entity declared the Informative Phase for the provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Holguín, Las Tunas, and Camagüey starting at 2:00 p.m. today, in order for the authorities to begin preparations for the meteorological emergency.
According to the statement, in recent hours Melissa "has shown little change over the waters of the Caribbean Sea, remaining nearly stationary."
However, its circulation "is interacting with the trough, causing an increase in humidity and instability over the national territory."
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