The deputy director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that Melissa “is virtually on the threshold of becoming a hurricane” and that, due to its current characteristics and extremely slow movement, it should be treated “as a hurricane” from now on.
In an update released on Saturday, it stated that the danger increases in the areas along the projected path —with emphasis on Jamaica— and that the system could intensify rapidly in the coming hours. “The situation is becoming increasingly serious,” it warned.
The NHC described Melissa as a more organized cyclone than yesterday, almost at the brink of hurricane category, with a pressure of around 982 mb and a barely noticeable movement toward the west-northwest.
In that context, he requested not to focus solely on the center's position, because severe impacts—especially from rain—will be felt much earlier and farther from the point of closest approach. “This is a case where one should not focus on the center,” he emphasized.
According to the update, the slow movement will continue for three to four days, with a gradual turn toward the west between today and tonight and a process of rapid intensification that could lead to a major hurricane status between today and tomorrow, before approaching Jamaica between Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Later, the NHC forecast places Melissa heading towards the west of Cuba on Wednesday, and subsequently towards the Turks and Caicos or the southern Bahamas, still as a powerful hurricane.
The official insisted that the islands of the Bahamas (south and central) and Turks and Caicos must begin to prepare.
Jamaica is under a hurricane warning, indicating that hurricane conditions are expected, while western Haiti remains under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning.
The NHC emphasized that, with such a slow movement, the accumulated rainfall will be the most destructive factor.
In the precipitation potential map, the areas in deep purple —which include Jamaica and the westernmost part of Haiti— indicate 20 to 30 inches (50 to 75 cm), amounts that the deputy director described as capable of causing catastrophic impacts.
For Jamaica, the NHC anticipates widespread power outages, communication interruptions, damaged bridges, impassable roads, and isolated communities.
He also warned that this risk of extreme rainfall may extend to the southwest of Cuba later in the forecast period, as the bands and the precipitation field expand.
"We are facing a very concerning situation that is unfolding," he said while urging people to reach out to family or friends on the island and expedite preparations.
The recommendation for the areas under watch and warning is to follow local guidelines, assume that Melissa is already acting as a hurricane, and take precautions against the potential for flooding and landslides.
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