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The hurricane Melissa, categorized as a level 5, continues its slow and devastating advance through the western Caribbean, with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 913 millibars, according to the intermediate advisory issued at 8:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States.
The cyclone, described by experts as "extremely dangerous", is currently located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.0°W, specifically about 220 kilometers southwest of Kingston (Jamaica) and 515 kilometers southwest of Guantánamo (Cuba).
It is moving slowly to the west at 6 km/h, but it is expected to turn to the northwest and north during the night, before speeding up to the northeast starting Tuesday.
"The core of Melissa will move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, then cross the southeast of Cuba on Tuesday night and the southeast of the Bahamas on Wednesday," the NHC specified in its latest update.
Jamaica under direct impact and Eastern Cuba on high alert
The government of Jamaica maintains a hurricane warning as the country faces destructive winds, storm surges, and torrential rains.
The NHC warns that the most intense effects will be felt starting tonight and throughout Tuesday, with swells of up to 4 meters and even stronger gusts in mountainous areas.
In Cuba, the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo, and Holguín remain under a hurricane warning, while Las Tunas is under a tropical storm warning.
The authorities of the Civil Defense have urged to complete emergency preparations before nightfall, in anticipation of the possible arrival of hurricane-force winds and torrential rains in the eastern part of the country starting on Tuesday.
Catastrophic winds and rains
The NOAA hurricane hunters and the U.S. Air Force confirmed that Melissa maintains its strength as a category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 260 km/h and even stronger gusts.
The NHC does not rule out further intensification before the system makes landfall in Jamaica.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 km from the center, and tropical storm winds up to 315 km, which means that the effects will be felt well before the eye of the hurricane arrives.
Precipitation also poses a severe threat:
- Jamaica: between 15 and 30 inches (380 to 760 mm) of rainfall.
- Eastern Cuba: between 10 and 15 inches (250 to 380 mm), with local accumulations of up to 20 inches (500 mm).
- Haiti: between 8 and 16 inches (200 to 400 mm).
The NHC warned of "catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides" in the mountainous areas of eastern Cuba and the Sierra Maestra.
Cyclonic swells and destructive waves
Melissa could generate storm surges of between 9 and 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) above sea level on the southern coast of Jamaica, and between 6 and 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) on the southeastern coast of Cuba. The phenomenon will be accompanied by "large and destructive waves," with the potential to cause serious damage in coastal communities.
The Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast of the Bahamas could also face storm surges and heavy rains starting Wednesday.
Evolution in relation to the previous report (5:00 a.m.)
- The hurricane remains at category 5, but its central pressure dropped from 917 mb to 913 mb, indicating further strengthening.
- The center of the system shifted slightly to the west (from 77.8°W to 78.0°W).
- The proximity to Jamaica increased, now only 135 miles (220 km) from Kingston.
- It is confirmed that dangerous conditions are already affecting the island, and they will intensify throughout the day.
- The projected path toward the east of Cuba remains unchanged, with a likely direct impact occurring between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Melissa is the most powerful Category 5 hurricane threatening Cuba in recent years. Cuban authorities, in coordination with the Meteorological Institute and Civil Defense, have begun the preventive evacuation of low-lying areas and the mobilization of resources toward the eastern part of the country.
The NHC warned that "the combination of swell, rain, and wind could have catastrophic consequences in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba."
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