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The Caribbean crisis takes a global turn. Amid a military escalation between the United States and Venezuela, documents leaked by The Washington Post reveal that President Nicolás Maduro requested urgent military assistance from his key allies—Russia, China, and Iran—to bolster his defense against a potential U.S. attack.
According to the information, Maduro drafted a letter addressed to Vladimir Putin in which he requested missiles, radars, and the repair of Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets that make up the core of the Venezuelan military aviation. The letter was delivered by his Minister of Transport, Ramón Celestino Velásquez, during a visit to Moscow last month.
In the letter, the Chavista leader also requested a “three-year financing plan” with the Russian state corporation Rostec, and described the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean as “a direct threat to Venezuelan sovereignty and to the interests of Russia and China.”
Maduro sent similar letters to Xi Jinping and Ebrahim Raisi, requesting detection radars, electronic warfare equipment, and drones with a range of up to one thousand kilometers. According to the American newspaper, Velásquez also coordinated shipments of Iranian military material, including GPS interference systems and long-range drones.
Russian support: Diplomatic and symbolic
Although the Kremlin has not publicly confirmed the requests, spokesperson Dmitri Peskov acknowledged this Saturday that "Russia is in contact with its Venezuelan friends" and reminded that both countries are "bound by contractual obligations."
The Russian Foreign Ministry was more explicit: "We support Venezuela's leadership in defending its national sovereignty and are prepared to respond appropriately to our partners' requests in light of emerging threats," it posted on social media before deleting a map that omitted Esequibo, a territory in dispute with Guyana.
Hours later, the Chancellery of Caracas expressed gratitude for Moscow's "unwavering support" and celebrated the "consolidation of a strategic alliance" between the two countries.
The support arrives at a critical moment for the Chavista regime. With more than 10,000 U.S. personnel, seven warships, a nuclear submarine, and the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford heading to the Caribbean, Washington has intensified military pressure, while former ambassador James Story asserted this week that “Maduro's days are numbered.”
The deterioration of the Venezuelan arsenal
Experts in defense cited by El Mundo noted that only four or five of the 25 Venezuelan Sukhoi fighters are in flying condition, due to a lack of maintenance and Russian technical personnel.
"The regime has spent billions of dollars on weaponry that is now inoperable. Chávez bought Soviet scrap," said a former Venezuelan army officer to the Post.
Despite the shortages, Maduro claims to have deployed 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S portable missiles, although Western sources question their operability.
In this scenario, a Russian cargo plane, the Ilyushin Il-76, which was sanctioned by Washington in 2023 for its role in arms trafficking, arrived in Caracas this week after a route over Africa to avoid European airspace.
Analysts believe it could have transported spare parts, portable anti-aircraft equipment, or electronic warfare systems, although they dismiss the possibility of heavy weaponry being brought in.
Between war and propaganda
Maduro, visibly emaciated in his last public appearance, urged his supporters to have "nerves of steel" in the face of rumors of an imminent attack.
"Whatever the threat may be, we must maintain calm and revolutionary unity," he said on Friday at the Palace of Miraflores, accusing Washington of "imperial wickedness."
Meanwhile, tensions are also rising in the eastern Caribbean. In Trinidad and Tobago, a U.S. ally, authorities have put their troops on standby following the arrival of the USS Gravely destroyer, just 11 kilometers off the Venezuelan coast.
With the region militarized and the clock ticking against Maduro, the Kremlin appears to have landed—at least diplomatically—in the Caribbean crisis.
But experts are skeptical: Russia, caught up in the war in Ukraine and facing sanctions, lacks the real means to save Maduro if Washington decides to act.
“Maduro clings to Moscow as if it were a lifeline,” summarized Cuban historian Armando Chaguaceda for El Mundo. “But his fate will be decided in the Caribbean, not in the Kremlin,” he concluded.
Maduro's bet on Russian support recalls the fate of Bashar al-Assad, who, after more than a decade of civil war in Syria, ended up fleeing to Moscow on December 8, 2024, when Islamist rebel forces took Damascus.
Putin had promised "unconditional support" to the Syrian regime, but his military intervention in 2015 ended up leaving the country devastated and the dictator turned into a Kremlin protegé, lacking legitimacy and sovereignty.
Today, Maduro seeks the same protection as Al-Assad, relying on an ally that uses his crises as geopolitical bargaining chips. However, just as happened in Syria, Russia remains embroiled in its invasion of Ukraine and does not seem willing—nor in a position—to save a regime that is already on shaky ground.
The Trump Enigma
The big question now is how Donald Trump will react to the renewed rapprochement between Caracas and Moscow.
Since his return to power, the American president has combined a tough stance against chavismo—and the drug cartels managed from Caracas—with a stated admiration for Putin, whom he considers "a strong man" and "an effective negotiator."
Now, in light of the evidence that Moscow is once again using an authoritarian ally—this time in the Caribbean—as a tool for geopolitical pressure, Trump faces a dilemma: Should he maintain the narrative of personal affinity with Putin, or acknowledge that the Russian leader has set another strategic trap for him?
If it reacts with caution, it may lose the opportunity to restore Washington's traditional influence in the region, including the chance to sweep away a drug dictatorship allied with Havana and Managua, and facilitate a transition aligned with U.S. interests.
If, on the other hand, he chooses direct confrontation, the risk of a hemispheric military crisis could escalate.
In both scenarios, Putin has already achieved something: he has forced the United States to divide its attention between Europe and Latin America, just when it needs to focus its efforts on Ukraine.
And while Maduro clings to the Kremlin as his last lifeline, the White House confronts its own reflection: a president who oscillates between impulsiveness and fascination for the man who time and again has shown him that loyalty is not part of his political lexicon.
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