The Electric Union of Cuba (UNE) predicted for this Saturday a deficit of 1,685 megawatts (MW) during peak hours, following a full day of disruptions and national generation unable to meet the demand.
This marks the fifth consecutive day in which the forecasted deficit exceeds 1,600 MW, reflecting the structural incapacity of the electrical system to meet daily demand and foreshadowing another day of extended blackouts across the country.
The National Electric System (SEN) reached its maximum tension again on Friday, facing a situation of disruptions lasting 24 hours, as the deficit reached 1,707 MW at 6:10 PM, according to the statement shared by the entity on its Facebook profile.
The figures for this November 22 show a system unable to sustain the country's minimum demand and with no signs of immediate recovery.
At six in the morning, the availability was only 1,605 MW compared to a demand of 2,320 MW, leaving 732 MW out of service due to capacity deficit.
For the half-hour schedule, the UNE estimates an impact of 980 MW, driven by a combination of breakdowns, maintenance, and fuel shortages.
Thermal generation continues to be deeply constrained. Unit 2 of Felton and units 5 and 6 of Renté remain out of order, while unit 2 of Santa Cruz del Norte and unit 4 of Cienfuegos are under maintenance. These outages alone account for a structural deficit of 590 MW.
The situation in distributed generation is even more severe, as 90 power plants are offline due to lack of fuel, amounting to 790 MW unavailable, in addition to another 80 MW affected by a shortage of lubricants, bringing the total to 870 MW.
Although the entry of unit 5 of Renté with 60 MW for peak demand is expected, the improvement is insufficient.
With that contribution, the projected availability would be 1,665 MW compared to a maximum demand of 3,280 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,615 MW and an estimated impact of 1,685 MW if conditions do not change.
Nevertheless, the impacts could be greater due to the disconnection of the National Electric System at 9:00 am, of Unit 1 of the Lidio Ramón Pérez thermoelectric plant in Felton, due to "high temperature in the bearing," a technical failure that halts one of the key components of the national electrical system.
Frequent breakdowns at Felton, just like in the other generating plants, are the result of an outdated system and poor state management.
For its part, the Electric Company of Havana confirmed through its profile on Facebook that the capital experienced 10 hours and 35 minutes of blackouts the previous day, with a maximum impact of 291 MW at 6:10 PM.
The service was restored at 8:35 PM, although the entity acknowledged that it could not meet the scheduled plans in the afternoon due to low availability of the SEN.
During the early hours, no outages were reported, but there are no guarantees of stability given the national outlook.
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