Related videos:
It is no secret that Cuba is experiencing one of the most critical moments regarding energy supply in 2025. The shortage of crude oil and fuels has hit the island hard, leaving Cubans on the brink of collapse.
According to a recent report from the agency Reuters, based on maritime traffic data and official documents from state-owned companies, oil and derivative imports decreased by 35% between January and October compared to the same period in 2024.
Behind that sharp decline are the drastic cuts in shipments from Mexico and Venezuela, and the almost non-existent support from other partners like Russia.
A 35% plunge: the figures that explain the crisis
Between January and October 2025, Cuba imported approximately 45,400 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, liquefied gas, and other fuels.
This figure stands in stark contrast to the 69,400 bpd received during the same period in 2024.
The decrease of 24,000 bpd signifies a drop of more than a third of the supply, and it directly translates into the country's inability to sustain its already deteriorated electrical system.
The data revealed by Reuters indicates that Mexico, which had emerged as a stable supplier in 2023 after normalizing the shipment of light crude Olmeca, has reduced its shipments to Cuba by 73%.
This year, shipments plummeted to only 5,000 bpd, compared to 18,800 bpd the previous year.
Venezuela, for its part, also reduced its shipments.
Imports from its main political ally fell by 15%, dropping from 32,200 to 27,400 bpd.
This reduction has particularly affected the supply of fuel oil, essential for electricity generation on the island.
Factors exacerbating the crisis: Sanctions, low production, and debt
The collapse in imports is not solely a result of a political decision by allied countries.
Mexico and Venezuela are facing structural difficulties that prevent them from ensuring a constant supply.
Mexican state-owned company Pemex's oil production fell by nearly 9% between January and September 2025, reaching 1.63 million barrels per day compared to 1.79 million during the same period in 2024.
Additionally, crude oil exports decreased by 23%, impacting the availability of Olmeca light sweet crude, preferred by Cuban refineries.
This type of oil, due to its high value, is reserved for customers who pay in cash and at market prices, something that Cuba cannot offer due to its financial crisis.
Venezuela, on the other hand, has had to redirect part of its crude oil to its own refineries due to the constant changes in the U.S. sanctions regime.
State-owned PDVSA has reduced the production of residual fuel oil that Cuba demands, according to internal documents cited by Reuters.
It also faces logistical problems: the lack of ships to transport oil has disrupted the flows to the island.
In this scenario, Russia has had a nearly symbolic participation: throughout the year, it has only sent a couple of shipments of Urals crude, which amounts to a volume similar to that recorded in 2024.
Blackouts that are spreading
The fuel shortage has a direct consequence: the collapse of the electrical system.
Although for years the areas most affected by power cuts were the eastern provinces, by 2025 the situation has strongly reached the capital.
Havana is experiencing unexpected blackouts that often last over nine hours a day, while in other provinces, access to electricity is limited to between two and four hours per day.
This Thursday, November 20, the Electric Union (UNE) of Cuba forecasted one of the most severe generation deficits in recent times.
For peak hours, the entity estimates an availability of only 1,494 MW against a maximum demand of 3,200 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,706 MW and a potential impact of up to 1,776 MW if current conditions persist.
According to the official report, 91 distributed generation plants remain out of service due to a lack of fuel, resulting in 767 MW being unavailable, along with an additional 85 MW from the Fuel Oil Mariel plant and another 75 MW due to a lack of lubricant.
In total, 927 MW are out of operation due to issues related to the supply of fuels and lubricants.
The previous day was marked by disruptions throughout the 24 hours, with a peak deficit of 1,964 MW at 6:10 PM due to insufficient generation capacity.
At 6:00 AM today, the availability of the National Electric System (SEN) was 1,340 MW, compared to a demand of 2,460 MW, resulting in a shortfall of 1,145 MW due to capacity deficit. By noon, UNE estimates an impact around 1,150 MW.
The difficulties are compounded by the outage of Unit 2 at the Felton Thermoelectric Power Plant due to malfunction, as well as Units 3, 5, and 6 at the Renté Thermoelectric Power Plant. Additionally, Unit 2 at the Santa Cruz Thermoelectric Power Plant, Unit 4 at the Cienfuegos Thermoelectric Power Plant, and the gas treatment plant in Puerto Escondido are still undergoing maintenance.
Conclusion: Without a clear horizon for recovery
Cuba is facing in 2025 a perfect energy storm: a drastic reduction in supply from its main partners, zero cash payment capacity, a lack of viable alternative options, and aging infrastructure that cannot withstand the pressure.
Neither Mexico nor Venezuela, the main sources of fuel for the island, have excess capacity to offer.
On the other hand, without a stable flow from Russia or other emerging sources, the country seems doomed to survive under conditions of extreme rationing.
The social and economic consequences are already being strongly felt: decreased productivity, transportation collapse, difficulties in preserving food, and a fatigued population facing not only literal blackouts but also a dark horizon with no clear signs of recovery.
Filed under: