The Ministry of the Interior released a new story this weekend: the dismantling of an illegal currency network that, according to the official version, moved more than 1 billion pesos and 250,000 dollars between the United States and Cuba. In the Island, the MININT claims there was a structure distributing national currency outside of state control; in Miami, a supposed organizer.
This operation comes at a time when the Cuban government is openly waging war against the unofficial dollar exchange rate. It not only targets clandestine currency exchange networks: it also directly targets El Toque, accusing it of "manipulating" the economy by publishing a price that people consider more accurate than the official one.
Because that is precisely the point: the informal market exists because the Cuban government is unable to sustain a real official market. This is not due to clandestine networks, digital platforms, or "external actors," but rather due to structural failures in the economic model itself.
People use the informal market because it is more predictable than the official one.
The State does not have the reserves to support an exchange rate
A serious currency market needs dollars. Dollars to sell. Dollars to intervene when the exchange rate rises too much. Dollars so that people can actually exchange CUP ↔ USD at the price set by the Central Bank. Cuba does not have them.
International reserves are at critical levels, lacking transparency, without the capacity for replenishment, and with no steady flow of income. If you say that 1 USD = 100 CUP but cannot sell dollars at that price, that is not an official rate; it is an illusion.
The government does not control the foreign currency that enters the country
For years, remittances were the main source of dollars for Cuba. Today, according to official data, less than 10% of those remittances come through state channels.
Where is the rest? In informal networks like the one that MININT claims to have dismantled. In alternative operators. In transactions between individuals.
And why does that happen? Because the State does not provide a reliable, fast, and transparent way to send money to the Island. Informal alternatives work better, are quicker, and offer a higher rate.
As long as people prefer the informal market, the State will never have enough dollars to sustain an official exchange rate.
An official market requires trust… and the government lost it years ago
Trust is not decreed. It is built. No one will give up their dollars at an official rate in a country where rules change overnight, accounts are frozen, transfers are blocked, arbitrary caps are imposed, and it is decided who can buy and who cannot.
People use the informal market because it is more predictable than the official one. As harsh as that statement may be, it's the truth.
The Cuban economy does not generate enough foreign currency
To maintain a stable exchange rate, you need dollars coming in from exports, tourism, foreign investment, industry, and agriculture.
But Cuba does not export enough, tourism remains depressed, foreign investment is struggling, and national production is at historic lows.
Without a productive base, there is no way to support an official exchange market.
The state's fiscal policy undermines any attempt at stability
The government is financing its deficit by printing more and more pesos. It's like adding water to cheap rum: each glass tastes less like rum.
Every new peso that enters without backing makes the CUP worth less. And as long as the Central Bank continues to produce money to patch up holes, the exchange rate will keep skyrocketing, no matter how "official" the rate is.
There is no single market; rather, there are several parallel markets
CUP, MLC, cash, cards, special stores, remittances, self-employed workers, private importers, warehouses, GAESA. Cuba has multiple "official" markets for the same dollar.
No country can stabilize its currency with such a puzzle. The existence of the informal market is not the cause of the chaos; it is a consequence of the official chaos.
Chasing currency exchangers doesn't address the root causes
The government boasts about police operations and repeats that illegal networks "affect the country's stability." However, what truly affects stability is not a group of currency exchangers:
it is a government that cannot provide a functioning official market.
Dismantling one network today only leads to three new ones emerging tomorrow. This is because the demand exists and the State cannot meet it.
Conclusion: the informal market exists because the government cannot provide a better one
The war against the El Toque rate, the arrests, the platform blackouts, the MININT operations... all of this is just temporary fixes. The underlying issue is that the State has already lost the ability to manage the foreign exchange market.
Without reserves, without trust, without production, without monetary discipline, without a unified market, and without institutional capacity, Cuba cannot have a stable official exchange rate.
And as long as the government continues to attack symptoms instead of causes, the dollar will keep slipping away whenever it finds a gap, and the informal market will remain the only one that reflects reality.
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Opinion article: Las declaraciones y opiniones expresadas en este artículo son de exclusiva responsabilidad de su autor y no representan necesariamente el punto de vista de CiberCuba.
