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The price of beef in the United States continues to rise sharply and has already recorded a 14.7% year-over-year increase, according to the latest data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cited by CNBC.
The increase, according to the report, contrasts with the average rise of 3.1% in food items, which confirms that consumers are facing much greater pressure on this product.
The root of the phenomenon, the news site explained, lies in a combination of factors that directly affect supply: the nation began 2025 with the lowest amount of livestock since 1951, a historically low level associated with the contraction of the so-called "cattle cycle."
In this natural process —which fluctuates every 8 to 12 years— producers decide whether to keep females for breeding or send them to market. With current prices and high demand, many ranchers have chosen to sell, exacerbating the deficit of available animals.
This dynamic is compounded by the persistent impact of several years of severe drought, which has limited the production of grass, hay, and alfalfa, forcing farmers to invest in supplemental feed.
Although grain prices have decreased since 2022, they continue to be an unexpected and significant expense in a context where operating costs in the sector have risen by more than 50% over the last five years, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Imports, diseases, and tariffs are also putting pressure on the market
The situation, according to the cited U.S. media outlet, becomes even more complicated due to external factors. Meat imports—especially important for ground beef production—face additional challenges. Brazil is dealing with a changing tariff environment, while Mexico is facing outbreaks of parasitic diseases in livestock, which reduces the international supply and further drives prices up in the U.S.
Despite the reduction in the national herd, total meat production has increased slightly due to the fact that the animals sent to slaughter are larger than in previous years. However, experts indicate that this strategy is not sustainable in the long term and that the real solution lies in rebuilding the country’s livestock population.
When might prices go down?
Experts warn that stabilization will not be immediate. If producers begin to retain females for breeding—a key step in rebuilding supply—meat availability will decrease even further in the short term, keeping prices high.
Only after approximately three years, when the new generations of livestock enter the system, should a gradual reduction in prices for both livestock and consumer meat begin to be observed.
Meanwhile, companies like Omaha Steaks are already acknowledging that the cost of raw materials is reaching unsustainable levels and that they may eventually pass some of the increase on to consumers. For American families, this means that the "sticker shock" at the grocery store for beef could last longer than anticipated.
Zero inflation, according to Donald Trump
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated last Tuesday that his administration has managed to stop inflation and that the country is "very close to achieving a perfect level" of economic stability.
"Since January, we have halted inflation in its tracks, and while there is still more to be done, we have reduced it to a very good level. (...) Soon it will be at a perfect level. We inherited the worst inflation," he said, referring to Joe Biden's Democratic administration.
The statements were made during the cabinet meeting on December 2, when the president asserted that his administration inherited unchecked inflation. Therefore, he defended the economic measures that, he said, have allowed for the stabilization of prices and the strengthening of the purchasing power of American families.
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