PERMANENT RED ALERT: A deficit of nearly 1,900 MW predicts a Sunday of prolonged blackouts across Cuba

The National Electric System (SEN) will again operate under emergency conditions this Sunday with an estimated impact of up to 1,860 MW during peak hours, which anticipates continuous blackouts, malfunctioning plants, fuel shortages, and a deficit that significantly exceeds the country's actual capacity to respond.

According to the daily report from Unión Eléctrica (UNE), the service was disrupted for 24 hours on Saturday, with a peak disruption of 1,955 megawatts at 6:00 PM.

The 33 new photovoltaic solar parks produced 2,105 MWh, with a maximum capacity of 450 MW at midday.

However, that contribution is marginal compared to a demand that far exceeds the available generation and collapses again as soon as the sun sets.

At 6:00 AM this Sunday, the availability of the National Electric System (SEN) was only 1,520 MW against a demand of 2,370 MW, resulting in a deficit of 810 MW since the start of the day.

For the midday schedule, a reduction of 900 MW was estimated, with no real recovery in sight.

The official report confirmed damages in unit 5 of the Máximo Gómez thermal power plant (Mariel) and in unit 2 of the Felton thermal power plant (Mayarí); simultaneous maintenance work in Santa Cruz del Norte and at the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes thermal power plant (Cienfuegos); and 556 MW out of service due to limitations in thermal generation.

This is compounded by the chronic fuel problem. A total of 101 distributed generation plants remain inactive, representing 909 MW that are unavailable, in addition to another 80 MW out of service due to a lack of lubricants.

In total, 989 MW are lost solely due to basic logistical shortcomings.

For the peak night hours, the UNE forecasts a maximum demand of 3,350 MW compared to a supply that does not exceed 1,520 MW.

The result is a deficit of 1,830 MW and an estimated impact of up to 1,860 MW, a figure that foresees prolonged and uneven power outages.

At noon, UNE itself confirmed the outage of unit 5 of the Diez de Octubre thermoelectric power plant in Nuevitas, which could worsen the forecasts.

While the official discourse insists on partial progress and future solutions, the SEN continues to operate at its limits, sustained by temporary fixes, with aging plants, insufficient fuel, and a population that bears the cost of a system unable to guarantee the most basic necessity: continuous electricity.