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Historical figures and recent data show that Cuba has been producing and consuming rice and potatoes for decades, while the current collapse is due to a sustained decline in production and cultivated land, rather than supposed "foreign" eating habits.
A statistical analysis released by economist Carlos Martínez on the Cubanomics blog dismantles the argument that rice and potatoes are not a natural part of the country's diet or agriculture, as presented on the state television program Cuadrando la Caja by Roberto Caballero, a member of the National Executive Committee of the Cuban Association of Agricultural and Forestry Technicians.
Historical data indicates that, in 1958, the monthly per capita consumption exceeded 10 pounds of rice and was around 2.20 pounds of meat, while potatoes, sweet potatoes, and yams regularly formed part of the diet of Cubans.
The figures for agricultural production reinforce this evidence. Historical records show that Cuba cultivated rice and potatoes since the early 20th century and that the production of both commodities grew steadily until 1959.
Far from being marginal crops, they were part of a strategy for agricultural diversification that combined national production and imports.
FAOSTAT data, cited in the analysis, reveals that the production of rice and potatoes per 1,000 inhabitants has experienced one of its worst moments in recent years since 1961.
Although there are doubts about the integrity of some official statistics, the downward trend is consistent with the current chronic scarcity.
The economist Pedro Monreal recently provided additional official figures that contradict the narrative of excessive consumption.
According to their calculations, the total availability of rice for consumption has decreased by 41.5% since the peak reached in 2005. Practically speaking, out of every 10 pounds available 18 years ago, only six remained in 2023, highlighting a contraction in supply rather than an increase in consumption.
The decline in productivity is also reflected in the cultivated area. Monreal noted that after reaching nearly 189,000 hectares in 2009, the area dedicated to rice began to decrease, with a particularly sharp decline starting in 2019.
In 2023, the area under non-state ownership, which had been crucial for production, accounted for only 13.1% of the maximum recorded 15 years earlier.
The contrast between income and prices reinforces the structural diagnosis. A state employee earns around 7,000 pesos a month, while the basic basket for one person is estimated at 50,000 pesos, in a context where a pound of rice has exceeded 400 pesos in the informal market.
These figures place a significant portion of the population in conditions of poverty, estimated at 89%.
Statistics, several economists agree, point to a problem in the design and management of the agricultural system, characterized by state controls, a lack of incentives, and a decline in production, rather than to an alleged need to "reeducate" the eating habits of the population.
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