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The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States released a bleak assessment of the economic and social situation in Cuba, describing a scenario of energy collapse, mass migration, and widespread scarcity, but in which it does not foresee an imminent fall of the regime.
The report, exclusively revealed to the news agency Reuters, concludes that there is not enough evidence to suggest that Miguel Díaz-Canel's government is on the verge of collapse, although it does not clarify whether it considered the pressures from Washington following Nicolás Maduro's fall in Venezuela.
Three sources with access to confidential documents indicated that CIA analysts believe the key sectors of the Cuban economy—such as agriculture, tourism, and energy—are in a critical state, affected by power outages of up to 20 hours a day outside of Havana, the loss of Venezuelan oil, and the impact of the embargo.
"Cuba is facing a very difficult situation, but the CIA does not conclude that the regime is close to collapsing," stated the sources cited by journalists Gram Slattery, Humeyra Pamuk, and Jonathan Landay.
The report highlights that the decline in oil supply from Venezuela —its main energy ally for two decades— has worsened the structural crisis in the country.
Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, the interim administration of Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas redirected almost all Venezuelan oil to the United States, leaving Cuba without its essential source of fuel.
"Even when Venezuelan oil was flowing, Cuba's energy situation was serious. Without that supply, the impact will be devastating," warned an analyst consulted by Reuters.
President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the lack of oil will lead to the collapse of the regime.
"Cuba seems ready to fall. They no longer have income, they depended on Venezuelan oil," the leader told reporters aboard Air Force One.
The intelligence report also highlights an unprecedented demographic crisis. Two U.S. officials indicated that the population of Cuba has likely fallen below nine million inhabitants, following years of massive migration of young people.
This "generational exodus," according to the document, lessens the social pressure for political change by draining the energy and leadership from the sectors that have traditionally led protests.
"When a population is starving, their priority is survival. But there can also come a point when desperation surpasses fear," explained Richard Feinberg, former national security advisor and professor at the University of California, San Diego.
CIA reports compare the current situation to the “Special Period” of the 1990s, following the fall of the Soviet Union, although they warn that the electrical and productive infrastructure is in worse condition than it was at that time.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, is described as a leader lacking popular legitimacy and charisma, reliant on military control and repression to maintain his government.
Despite the economic collapse, U.S. analysts do not see clear signs of fracture within the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) or the Revolutionary Armed Forces, which reinforces the perception of repressive stability amid the chaos.
The collapse of Venezuela as an energy and financial provider has left Cuba isolated and vulnerable. Without the support of chavismo or the economic influence of Russia, Havana is facing its greatest crisis in more than three decades.
Meanwhile, Washington maintains a policy of "maximum pressure" on the regime, with reinforced sanctions and open support for the Cuban opposition and exiles.
Analysts consulted by Reuters believe that the political outcome on the island will depend on the regime's ability to withstand hunger and social discontent, while maintaining control over the armed forces and the security apparatus.
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