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The Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel has a 52% chance of leaving power before 2027, according to data from the U.S. financial market Kalshi, a legal and regulated platform in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC).
Kalshi allows investment in real-world events and reflects, through the prices of its contracts, investors' expectations regarding political, economic, and social issues.
In this case, the contract is titled “World Leaders Out Before 2027?” and raises the possibility that several leaders from different countries may leave their positions before January 1 of that year.
For Cuba, the indicator specifically refers to the departure of Díaz-Canel as the First Secretary of the Communist Party, a position that holds political power on the island.
According to market rules, the contract will be considered fulfilled if the leader himself or the party authorities officially announce his departure or if it takes place before the deadline.
Kalshi clarifies that only announcements confirmed by recognized international media such as Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, or CNN, among others, will be accepted.
In the most recent update, Díaz-Canel is listed with a 52% probability of leaving office, slightly above British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (50%) and Hungarian Viktor Orbán (49%).
In that same market, Colombian President Gustavo Petro (94%), Peruvian President José Jeri (92%), and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (58%) also stand out, as they top the global list of leaders most likely to leave office before 2027.
The total volume traded in this market exceeds 3.4 million dollars, reflecting international interest in high-impact political changes.
Kalshi is a company based in New York that operates under strict federal oversight and has been recognized for creating a legal financial space to gauge expectations regarding verifiable events, ranging from inflation to elections or political transitions.
The fact that the platform assigns Díaz-Canel a probability of over 50% suggests that international investors perceive increasing instability in Cuban leadership amid the economic crisis, power outages, food shortages, and rising social discontent on the island.
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